On Jun 29, 9:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:
I've seen enough today to suggest that the settled weather will
continue only for some in the south and east of the UK. The lead up to
T+240 will see some rain for most, if not all.

** At T240, on Friday 9th July, the weather in the UK will be
characterised by lower pressure to the north and NW and higher
pressure to the south and SW, giving wind directions across the UK
between south and north-west. This essentially zonal pattern means
that troughs will cross the UK and many areas will see rain on the run-
up to the 9th, but the NW will see the bulk of the rain. The possible
disruption of this rainfall pattern may be in very warm plumes in
advance of the Atlantic depressions where the potential for hot and
thundery weather may bring heavy convective showers to more southern
areas. Ridging of the Azores high will quieten the weather at times in
southern districts, in the lead-up to the 9th. The NW will be wetter
and much windier. **

What I don't see is a dry first half of July, except for a possible
fortunate(?) few in the south-east. I don't see the UK's weather being
dominated by the Azores high and whether it will return during the
second half of the summer, to give us much more settled weather, is
moot. I do see warmth and spells of hot weather at times for the SE
over the next 10 days however. Hopefully somewhere will reach 90F in
one of those plumes! *))

Pretty good from 10 days out? The convective showers may be saving
themselves for Sun/Mon, but the spotting of the plumes, rather than
the ridging of the Azores high was reasonable, as was the spotting of
the hot weather. It's essentially a zonal situation with high pressure
over the continent and lows and troughs pushing in (albeit slowly)
from the Atlantic and affecting the NW. The NW of the UK has seen much-
needed rain over the last few days and winds have been up to gale
force recently in the far NW, though rainfall amounts south of the Exe-
Tees line have been less than I'd suggested. The troughs will make
more headway this week.