The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary:

• A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is underway.
• Sea surface temperatures are decreasing across much of the Pacific
Ocean and
have recently become slightly below-average in portions of the eastern
half of the
basin.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, a
transition to
ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue
into the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
• Although many models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, there is a
growing
possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010.