Nick Gardner wrote:
Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit
with an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April
as dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(

Yep, Philip Eden describes the correlation between dry & sunny Aprils
and wet summers, and vice versa.

All last 3 Aprils have generally been dry and sunny, and look how the
summers have turned out. Surely we can't get a 4th miserable summer on
the trot!!

Shouldn't be that difficult to investigate; download the England+Wales
precipitation records from the Met Office site and look at the
correlation between April and the following summer. I would be surprised
if there was a significant correlation.

According to that timeseries the last three consecutive July's have had
at least 100mm of rainfall. There have never been four consecutive
July's with at least 100mm of rainfall (records go back to 1766)


Then again, April 2006 wasn't at all bad and looked how that summer
turned out. There's always hope suppose.


What was April 1990 and 1995 like?