"Chris Smith" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell
of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high
retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM
air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling
pressure. Three things will aid snow development:
1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and
falling pressure.
2. Decreasing stability forcing convection
3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass
ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out
but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody
will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
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Have you been at the Gin cupboard again?


I drink whisky :-)

Wow - some forecast. I have things to do next week that will be impacted
by such a scenario - so once again, I hope you are wrong.


It has been known to happen :-)

Can't you forecast something nice for us?


LOL

Well I did say a few days ago that this would be the final cold spell of the
winter, trouble is ... I didn't say how long it would last :-))

Spring will come when the main polar jet eventually backs SW'ly in the
western Atlantic and heads towards Iceland. For that to happen a major
trough needs to eastablish over Canada just east of the Rockies, for that to
happen there needs to be some changes in the Pacific, for that to happen the
Russian high needs to migrate east and that I think will be governed by
stratospheric changes which in turn will be triggered by increasing
insolation as the equinox gets closer. So I think come March Chris I may be
forecasting some warm and sunny weather at *some stage*. But warm weather
fans can write February off now :-) OTOH once winter ends there will be at
least 8 months until the next winter starts!

Will
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