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Old January 10th 10, 08:56 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
John Hall John Hall is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2003
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Default Met office downgrade warnings for southeast

In article
,
mattmaz writes:
From here in Ashford, Kent, I can very much confirm that it was a non-
event. Not particularly surpeised by this either - I was looking at an
array of different radar charts through the evening last night &
wondering just where the met office were expecting the heavy snow to
appear from. I am no weather expert, and would never pretend to be,
but if I can look at these radar that are available & make a judgement
that yet another warning is incorrect it makes you wonder which radar
etc they use ? It can't be their own one ...... lol


Presumably they were expecting something to develop, which failed to do
so. Radar tells you what is happening now, and is an excellent guide for
the next hour or two, but it is going to be of limited help for say over
6 hours ahead. Remember the heavy dump in parts of the south last
Tuesday (was it?) evening and night? A few hours before that began,
there was little to be seen on the radar.

I can remember the better part of fifty years of forecasts of snow,
which seemed to fail to materialise more often than not. The forecasts
are much better now, but still fall well short of perfection. I think
that people need to accept that forecasting snow is very difficult, and
that a substantial fraction off forecasts are always going to be wrong.
The models are excellent at forecasting the pressure patterns, but a lot
of human input is still needed to put the "weather" on.

I love snow, but the non-stop moaning from certain quarters when they
don't get as much as they were hoping for is starting to get on my
nerves. Whatever happened to the traditional British stiff upper lip?
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)