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Old January 5th 10, 08:37 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
[email protected] sanctified1@angelfire.com is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2006
Posts: 127
Default cause of recent erratic forecasts

On 5 Jan, 20:34, Scott W wrote:
Are the seemingly constant changes to forecasts, sometimes just hours
ahead, being caused by the fact that the Met Office very rarely has to
cope with predicting snowfall? I would guess that the same event in
summer, under similar environmental dynamics, would lead to forecasts
of heavy thundery rain - some places would get a deluge, others less
so, though people would not bat an eyelid because they would just be
happy to know that there was a "chance of heavy rain".
Does the fact that there are now far fewer official met office
observers also play a part?


Scott

I expect the same critisms would be made in summer if sudden
development of storms causing local flooding.
The fact is forecasting exactly where and when rain / snow will
develop before it has started to do so is more difficult than
forecasting atlantic frontal systems crossing the country.

 
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