Harvard astrophysicist: Sunspot activity correlates to global climate change

By Rick C. Hodgin
Friday, April 10, 2009 13:12

Boston (MA) - Harvard astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon tells us that Earth has
seen a reduced level of sunspot activity for the past 18 months, and is
currently at the lowest levels seen in almost a century. Dr. Soon says "The
sun is just slightly dimmer and has been for about the last 18 months. And
that is because there are very few sunspots." He says when the sun has less
sunspots, it gives off less energy, and the Earth tends to cool. He notes
2008 was a cold year for this very reason, and that 2009 may be cold for the
same.

As of today, there have been 15 days in a row without any sunspots. In 2008
there were 266 days scattered throughout the year without sunspots, and in
2007 there were 163 days without sunspots. These are the #2 and #9 fewest
sunspots years seen since 1911.

Dr. Soon's field of specialty is the sun. He explains that sunspots are
planet-sized pockets of magnetism with much greater energy output and matter
expulsion, some of which strikes the Earth's atmosphere as extra energy from
the sun. He says when sunspots are present, the temperature goes up, when
they are not present the temperature goes down. He also told a reporter at
WBZ, CBS TV 38 (in Boston, MA) that beginning in 1645 and continuing through
1715, there were no observed sunspots. This is the period known as the
Little Ice Age.

He also explains that sunspots go in cycles, which are around 11 years.
There are periods of maximum activity (called the Solar Max) and periods of
minimal or no activity (called the Solar Min).

Around the year 2000, the current cycle had reached its maximum. As of right
now in 2009, it is at a period of zero sunspot activity. Still, he explains
that no one knows for sure how long the cycles will last, and there are
precedents that sunspots can persist for long periods of time, or there can
be few or none for long periods of time (as happened between 1645 and 1715
during the Little Ice Age).

So far in 2009, the sun has had no sunspots for 88 out of the 99 days so far
this year. Dr. Soon calls what we are seeing "the first deep solar minimum
of the space age", and "In fact, this is the quietest [fewest sunspots] Sun
we have had in almost a century".

In a separate video interview, he explains some possible scenarios which
align with global temperature changes relating to sunspot activity, as the
increased or decreased energy output from the sun affects the Earth's
climate.

He explains in that interview:

"When the energy input to the Earth from the sun is lower, you can easily
imagine then what the first effect would be -- heating less of the ocean's
surface. This promotes less evaporation of water vapor from the ocean,
reducing what we all know to be the major green house gas, water vapor, in
contrast to atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, you would say that if the sun
provides less energy to warm the ocean's surface, and there is less of this
water vapor and less of the water vapor greenhouse effect, then the Earth
begins warming less so than you would normally have during the normal
sunspot activity maximum when the sun gives off more light-energy to the
planetary system.

"The second way to think about this is if the sun is giving less light to
the ocean's surface, then you will also give less energy to transfer the
heat, or even the material itself, from the surface to the upper atmosphere.
The connection between the surface and the upper atmosphere is less than it
would be, including the circulation patterns of the weather and the oceans.

"And then one can think about it another way, if you give less energy to
transfer energy from the surface to higher up in the atmosphere, as high as
5 or 8 kilometers, then the chance for the system to produce these so-called
thin high-cirrus clouds is less. These are the clouds that are very, very
effective as a greenhouse blocker, these thin high-cirrus clouds. This is
the idea that Professor Dickenson from MIT has suggested, that the Earth
system may act like an iris. If it's too warm, then the iris opens, if it's
too cold it closes, so that this fixture can trap heat, providing a very
efficient way to warm or cool the Earth system.

"During a solar activity minimum, imagine that you produce less of these
high-cirrus clouds, then the ability of the Earth to shed heat itself is a
lot easier, therefore the system cools. And then continuing, when you don't
have enough energy to bring all of this water vapor and the currents more
than a few kilometers up, then it all accumulates at the bottom of the
system, producing more of the low clouds. And on low clouds we know that
they are very effective at reflecting sunlight. So again, it's another way
that the Earth system can cool.

"And even another way to think about it is less energy intercepted in the
tropical region, from say 20 or 30 degrees north and south latitudes, then
you are able to transfer less heat energy to the polar regions, resulting in
the arctic regions getting slightly cooler in that sense as well.

"So these are some of the possible scenarios that we've reached which in
sort of a low-sunlight scenario would affect the Earth's weather."

Dr. Soon is an astrophysicist whose field of expertise is the sun for
Harvard and the Smithsonian. He said, "The Sun is the all encompassing
energy giver to life on planet Earth." And presently it's getting a lot of
attention from scientists. He expects that if 2009 is another cold year
which correlates to the decreased sunspot activity, that the global warming
theories which attribute temperature fluctuations to increases in the levels
of atmospheric CO2 will need to take notice.

He says, "If this deep solar minimum continues and our planet cools while
CO2 levels continue to rise, thinking needs to change. This will be a very
telling time and it's very, very useful in terms of science and society in
my opinion".