Just a short note concerning some comments I have read about a possible
disturbance moving up the Eastern Seaboard for next week. While some of the
schemes (ECMWF, UKMET, GFS) have a low tracking from off GA into NS, the
trajectiry swings very wide of the shoreline. Also, surface pressures are not
deep (1011MB or so), and structure of 500MB trough is both diffuse and positive
tilt.

I would not rule out a snow event in the Day 5-6 period, but it is far from the
shoo-in that some comments on other forums might lead you to believe. The
retreat of the cold air is in evidence as the cAk motherlode gets locked up
over the Arctic Islands of Canada, so when the next major system threatens
around February 20-21-22, with its more northerly track, precipitation type in
much of the Northeast will probably be rain and not snow.

Best Regards
Larry Cosgrove


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