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Old February 24th 04, 10:19 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
John Dann John Dann is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 389
Default EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Translation:

Issued by the Met Office at 09:30 on Tuesday, 24 February 2004.

Overall risk assessment: the probability of disruption due to severe
weather conditions in part of the United Kingdom within the next 120
hours is 90 percent.

Regional risk assessment for the occurrence of severe weather
conditions between 12:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2004 and 12:00 on
Sunday 29 February 2004.

Northern Scotland 80%
Eastern Scotland 80%
Southwest Scotland 60%
Northern Ireland 60%
Northwest England 60%
Northeast England 80%
The Midlands 60%
Wales 60%
Southwest England 50%
Central southern England 50%
Southeast England 70%
East Anglia and Lincolnshire 80%

This warning is the second update to that issued at 10:00 on Sunday
22 February 2004.

The Met Office is forecasting a strong flow of arctic air to become
established across the whole of the UK by the early hours of
Wednesday.

Snow showers already affecting northern Scotland will increasingly
affect many other parts of the UK and will become most frequent over
coastal and upland areas exposed to the strong northerly winds.
Although snow could occur anywhere over the UK through the period,
northern and eastern areas will be most at risk from frequent, heavy
and sometimes squally snow showers giving moderate (5-10cm)
accumulations in places and heavy (as much as 30cm) in a few exposed
or upland areas.

Strong or gale force winds at times will lead to drifting of lying
snow whilst blizzard conditions could occur in places, especially the
north and east where winds could gust to over 60mph. Dangerous driving
conditions are expected and it is likely that some untreated roads may
become impassable.

There is a moderate risk than an area of more persistent snow may
affect parts of SW Britain on Thursday.

This warning will be updated tomorrow, Wednesday 25 February, unless
superseded by flash messages

JGD