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Old February 23rd 04, 10:43 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Pete Lawrence Pete Lawrence is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Oct 2003
Posts: 9
Default EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

On 23 Feb 2004 21:05:42 -0000, (Adrian D. Shaw) wrote:

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Pete Lawrence :
Percentage probability indicators are fine but the 50% level is just
another way of saying "don't know". Sometimes standing back and
taking in just what's being said is quote amusing.


Somewhere in the mountains of Scotland, the chances are doubtless 100%
of snow. Somewhere around the mediterranean probably around 0%. Somewhere
in between has to be a 50%. Would you rather know that it was a 50% chance
or would you like them to toss a coin and tell you that it will definitely
snow?


Part of me does and part of me doesn't.
--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Come and visit the "Lunar Parallax Demonstration Project"