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Old February 23rd 04, 08:05 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Adrian D. Shaw Adrian D. Shaw is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 943
Default EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Pete Lawrence :
Percentage probability indicators are fine but the 50% level is just
another way of saying "don't know". Sometimes standing back and
taking in just what's being said is quote amusing.


Somewhere in the mountains of Scotland, the chances are doubtless 100%
of snow. Somewhere around the mediterranean probably around 0%. Somewhere
in between has to be a 50%. Would you rather know that it was a 50% chance
or would you like them to toss a coin and tell you that it will definitely
snow?

Personally I appreciate the percentage certainties.

Adrian
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Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
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