On Mon, 23 Feb 2004 10:08:05 -0000, "Shaun Pudwell"
wrote:

Only 50% is SE. It's like saying, "well it might or might not". Just keep
looking out of the window!

Well... no!

I reckon the probability of *disruption* from snow in Central Southern
England for a randomly chosen 5 day period in the Winter is about 5%
and for my location near the Coast nearer 1%. That is, if you issued a
series of 5 day forecasts throughout the Winter (90 days), and
forecast disruption from snow every time, you'd be wrong 95 to 99% of
the time.

So it's quite exciting down here when the probability increases to
40%! OK, that's probably an average for the region and for my location
it would be, perhaps 20% or less. But that's a heck of a lot higher
than the normal 1% to 5% !

--
Dave
Fareham