On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:53:34 +0000, Mike Tullett
wrote:

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:17:17 +0000, Dave Ludlow wrote in
m
snip
I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

I won't enter the debate about next week as I honestly haven't a clue what
is going on with the GFS model. This did prompt me to search for the 850mb
temps [1] in that (in)famous winter some of us recall :-) so well and came
upon this page at Topkarten. It is the archive of 850mb temps for that
winter and one can scroll through each day using "1 Tag vor" to go to next
day and "1 Tag zurück" to go back a day. It is fascinating to see how warm
it became up at 850mb on some days, despite the continuing surface cold.

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1963&typ=2

[1] As others have correctly pointed out the 850mb temperature isn't a
particularly good guide to surface temps in an easterly or anticyclonic
situation.

All true Mike, I was just saying I've noticed that the GFS tends to
overcook the *850 hPa* temperatures for the South, in a cold
Northerly. When the day arrives I bet it's -5 rather than -10 on the S
Coast as GFS predicts.

I realise it *can* be very cold, even snow at around -5C (850hPa) in
some situations but obviously it would be far more likely at -10 (if
it did anything, that is). By the way, 2 days after that anticyclonic
reanalysis you posted, the Easterlies were back Mmmmm....
http://217.160.130.220/wz/pics/archi...0219630131.gif

--
Dave