On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:17:17 +0000, Dave Ludlow wrote in

snip
I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

I won't enter the debate about next week as I honestly haven't a clue what
is going on with the GFS model. This did prompt me to search for the 850mb
temps [1] in that (in)famous winter some of us recall :-) so well and came
upon this page at Topkarten. It is the archive of 850mb temps for that
winter and one can scroll through each day using "1 Tag vor" to go to next
day and "1 Tag zurück" to go back a day. It is fascinating to see how warm
it became up at 850mb on some days, despite the continuing surface cold.

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1963&typ=2

[1] As others have correctly pointed out the 850mb temperature isn't a
particularly good guide to surface temps in an easterly or anticyclonic
situation.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 22/01/2004 15:53:34 UTC