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Old November 16th 04, 09:12 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

Pete B wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

JPG wrote:

Well remembered by me as it happened during my Assistant's course at
Stanmore in
November 1965. I recall a few inches of snow in North London at the
time and
doing the ob at the mock met office and reporting snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119651130.gif

I don't think it lasted all that long.

Martin



November 1969 also produced some decent northerly outbreaks. This
followed a record October which had produced possibly the best
"summer" month of the year - dry (0.5mm at Bracknell), sunny, and very
warm. The long-range forecast for November went for more northerly
winds than usual, more frosts, and more snow. This was met with some
scepticism but the forecast proved to be spot on.

Graham
Bracknell



And in those days, this setup (for 12:00 UTC, Sat 20 Nov):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

would have almost certainly produced some 'interesting' weather too as
the milder air tried to re-assert itself from the S /SW.

Not so likely now though, just rain.


In the late sixties, a contributory factor to the cold in northerly
weather types was the large amount of ice off East Greenland. If I
remember rightly, in November 1969, the ice had already extended as far
as Jan Mayen, at least 200NM further SE than it is at the moment.

Graham




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Old November 16th 04, 11:41 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

"Pete B" wrote in message
...

snipped

And in those days, this setup (for 12:00 UTC, Sat 20 Nov):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

would have almost certainly produced some 'interesting' weather too as the
milder air tried to re-assert itself from the S /SW.

Not so likely now though, just rain.


Oops, correction, that obviously should have been:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3a.gif

It doesn't look anything like as 'good' as it did 24 hrs ago though. :-(

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

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Old November 16th 04, 08:58 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Pete B wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

JPG wrote:

Well remembered by me as it happened during my Assistant's course at
Stanmore in
November 1965. I recall a few inches of snow in North London at the
time and
doing the ob at the mock met office and reporting snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119651130.gif

I don't think it lasted all that long.

Martin


November 1969 also produced some decent northerly outbreaks. This
followed a record October which had produced possibly the best "summer"
month of the year - dry (0.5mm at Bracknell), sunny, and very warm. The
long-range forecast for November went for more northerly winds than
usual, more frosts, and more snow. This was met with some scepticism but
the forecast proved to be spot on.

Graham
Bracknell



And in those days, this setup (for 12:00 UTC, Sat 20 Nov):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

would have almost certainly produced some 'interesting' weather too as
the milder air tried to re-assert itself from the S /SW.

Not so likely now though, just rain.


In the late sixties, a contributory factor to the cold in northerly
weather types was the large amount of ice off East Greenland. If I
remember rightly, in November 1969, the ice had already extended as far as
Jan Mayen, at least 200NM further SE than it is at the moment.

Graham



This page:

http://wwwsat06.met.fu-berlin.de/~wo...E/icetext.html

for the ice state in the various months of 2002 contains graphical info
about ice extent changes on a year on year basis for individual months from
1966 to 2002.

With specific reference to November, the results:

http://wwwsat06.met.fu-berlin.de/~wo...2/11/index.htm

show Novembers of 1967 and 1968 had an even greater amount of ice in the
Atlantic sector than 1969 did. After that, the only November months with
high +ve anomalies for ice extent were 1971, 1973 and 1988. Those 3
Novembers also had good, real 'Northerly' cold spells with a reasonable
amount of frost and snow. 1973, I remember being my first year at University
in Manchester and one day late in the month, a day of snow, even in the
middle of the city, although it didn't last long as a temporary warmer
interlude followed a low moving south on the eastern side of a high to the
west before another few days of frost returned. Both the 1974 and 1989
"winters" that followed are remembered as being very 'zonal' and mild. In
contrast, the Novembers of both 1978 and 1981 show little or no +ve ice
anomaly compared to the mean, the winters following both being memorable for
cold and snow in December & January. Strangely, November 1972 though had the
second lowest ice extent in the sector, only 2000 having less. It is perhaps
unfortunate that this particular analysis hasn't been updated since 2002 but
the conclusion that has to be drawn from *some* of the monthly results is
that the late 1960's were, on the whole, unusually icy compared to the 30
years since. It is hard to say that from 1970 to 2002, there has been a
significant overall drop in the average amount for specific months since, at
least in this sector!

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

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Old November 17th 04, 12:11 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

Pete B wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

Pete B wrote:

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

JPG wrote:

Well remembered by me as it happened during my Assistant's course
at Stanmore in
November 1965. I recall a few inches of snow in North London at
the time and
doing the ob at the mock met office and reporting snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119651130.gif

I don't think it lasted all that long.

Martin



November 1969 also produced some decent northerly outbreaks. This
followed a record October which had produced possibly the best
"summer" month of the year - dry (0.5mm at Bracknell), sunny, and
very warm. The long-range forecast for November went for more
northerly winds than usual, more frosts, and more snow. This was met
with some scepticism but the forecast proved to be spot on.

Graham
Bracknell



And in those days, this setup (for 12:00 UTC, Sat 20 Nov):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

would have almost certainly produced some 'interesting' weather too
as the milder air tried to re-assert itself from the S /SW.

Not so likely now though, just rain.


In the late sixties, a contributory factor to the cold in northerly
weather types was the large amount of ice off East Greenland. If I
remember rightly, in November 1969, the ice had already extended as
far as Jan Mayen, at least 200NM further SE than it is at the moment.

Graham



This page:

http://wwwsat06.met.fu-berlin.de/~wo...E/icetext.html

for the ice state in the various months of 2002 contains graphical info
about ice extent changes on a year on year basis for individual months
from 1966 to 2002.

With specific reference to November, the results:

http://wwwsat06.met.fu-berlin.de/~wo...2/11/index.htm

show Novembers of 1967 and 1968 had an even greater amount of ice in the
Atlantic sector than 1969 did. After that, the only November months with
high +ve anomalies for ice extent were 1971, 1973 and 1988. Those 3
Novembers also had good, real 'Northerly' cold spells with a reasonable
amount of frost and snow. 1973, I remember being my first year at
University in Manchester and one day late in the month, a day of snow,
even in the middle of the city, although it didn't last long as a
temporary warmer interlude followed a low moving south on the eastern
side of a high to the west before another few days of frost returned.
Both the 1974 and 1989 "winters" that followed are remembered as being
very 'zonal' and mild. In contrast, the Novembers of both 1978 and 1981
show little or no +ve ice anomaly compared to the mean, the winters
following both being memorable for cold and snow in December & January.
Strangely, November 1972 though had the second lowest ice extent in the
sector, only 2000 having less. It is perhaps unfortunate that this
particular analysis hasn't been updated since 2002 but the conclusion
that has to be drawn from *some* of the monthly results is that the late
1960's were, on the whole, unusually icy compared to the 30 years
since. It is hard to say that from 1970 to 2002, there has been a
significant overall drop in the average amount for specific months
since, at least in this sector!


Thanks for pointing me to this site. I'd argue with some of the data as
regards the maximum ice limits for the period concerned. For instance,
in the spring of 1966, the ice in the Barents Sea extended East of
Murmansk, running northwards from the coast at about 33E. Also, in the
spring of 1967(?) the ice was hard onto the North Iceland coast,
extending well round the SE coast. On another occasion the Odden linked
across to the ice near Bear Island, causing the normally open area SW of
Svalbard to be ice-covered. I suspect these maps may have been compiled
from monthly charts, valid at the end of the month perhaps, so missing
extreme events during the month.

I think the year I was thinking of could have been 1968 instead of 1969
though the graphs cover too large an area to be sure of this. East
Greenland ice conditions worsened through the sixties, but with a
biennial oscillation. I think the winters 66/7 and 68/9 were typified by
a low-pressure anomaly in the Norwegian Sea; 65/6 and 67/8 tended
towards Scandinavian highs. The former would have been more conducive to
heavy ice years for East Greenland.

I remember looking at the temperatures for Jan Mayen for 1951-70. For
each month, the warmest year in the sixties was colder than the coldest
month in the fifties!

At the end of the sixties, the centre of the cold winter weather, which
had been moving westwards during the decade, jumped from East to West
Greenland. This marked the end of the severe ice years for East
Greenland and began the severe winters which affected Eastern America in
the early seventies. During the sixties that region had had relatively
light ice conditions.

There are recent archives of ice charts at http://www.seaice.de/.

Graham


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Old November 17th 04, 04:06 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

On Wed, 17 Nov 2004 13:11:33 +0000, Graham P Davis wrote in

snip
I think the year I was thinking of could have been 1968 instead of 1969
though the graphs cover too large an area to be sure of this. East
Greenland ice conditions worsened through the sixties, but with a
biennial oscillation. I think the winters 66/7 and 68/9 were typified by
a low-pressure anomaly in the Norwegian Sea; 65/6 and 67/8 tended
towards Scandinavian highs. The former would have been more conducive to
heavy ice years for East Greenland.

snip

IIRC it was indeed 1968 which had the greatest amount of ice to our north.
I used to mention to my students that year was the only one last century
when polar bears were able cross to Iceland over the ice. A quick look on
Google led me to this page which has an interesting section on this ice.

http://website.lineone.net/~polar.pu...hedriftice.htm

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 17/11/2004 17:06:05 UTC


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Old November 17th 04, 04:14 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

On Wed, 17 Nov 2004 17:06:05 +0000, Mike Tullett wrote in

snip
http://website.lineone.net/~polar.pu...hedriftice.htm


I forgot to paste this in from the page above:

quote
In 1968 polar ice off Iceland was more extensive than it had been since
1888. This unusual ice winter began when the weather station attendant in
Grímsey woke up to a frightening reality on the morning of December 5,
1967. The island was surrounded by polar ice. The small island of Grímsey,
crossed by the Arctic Circle itself, is the most northerly settlement in
Iceland. The panorama facing the weather station attendant was the
beginning of a major event, as the ice persisted for month after month
along the northern coast of Iceland and even in the East Fjords, until well
into June and did not disappear completely until midsummer.
endquote

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 17/11/2004 17:14:29 UTC
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Old November 17th 04, 04:21 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

All this talk of ice. Just imagine what happens when the ice does finally
melt in the poles... what chance of cold, snowy weather for the UK by then?
---------------------------------------------------------
"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 17 Nov 2004 13:11:33 +0000, Graham P Davis wrote in

snip
I think the year I was thinking of could have been 1968 instead of 1969
though the graphs cover too large an area to be sure of this. East
Greenland ice conditions worsened through the sixties, but with a
biennial oscillation. I think the winters 66/7 and 68/9 were typified by
a low-pressure anomaly in the Norwegian Sea; 65/6 and 67/8 tended
towards Scandinavian highs. The former would have been more conducive to
heavy ice years for East Greenland.

snip

IIRC it was indeed 1968 which had the greatest amount of ice to our north.
I used to mention to my students that year was the only one last century
when polar bears were able cross to Iceland over the ice. A quick look on
Google led me to this page which has an interesting section on this ice.

http://website.lineone.net/~polar.pu...hedriftice.htm

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 17/11/2004

17:06:05 UTC


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Old November 17th 04, 04:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

"JPG" wrote in message ...
Well remembered by me as it happened during my Assistant's course at Stanmore in
November 1965. I recall a few inches of snow in North London at the time and
doing the ob at the mock met office and reporting snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119651130.gif

I don't think it lasted all that long.

Martin


Don't know whether I've missed this in the previous posts but 42 years ago today was the start of a short northerly outbreak with
widespread snow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...1962111712.gif
This was followed by very foggy conditions early December 1962
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...1962120412.gif
then a mobile westerly flow and then? Not even going there

Regards,

Rob
Chester, UK
http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/


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Old November 17th 04, 05:05 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

Don't know whether I've missed this in the previous posts but 42 years
ago today was the start of a short northerly outbreak with
widespread snow
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...1962111712.gif
This was followed by very foggy conditions early December 1962
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...1962120412.gif
then a mobile westerly flow and then? Not even going there

Regards,

Rob
Chester, UK
http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/



Strange you should say that Rob - I was thinking exactly the same but
didn't have the confidence to write it! Just goes to show I suppose that
the November cold snaps are not a reliable guide to what may come after.

Mind you I think global warming has done more than raise the temperature
- it seems to have changed the flow patterns in the northern hemisphere
- so perhaps we are being unduly optimistic even in wishful thinking!

Cheers
James
--
James Brown
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Old November 17th 04, 07:19 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default You *can* get a decent northerly in November (39 years ago!)

"danny(West Kent)" wrote in
message .. .
All this talk of ice. Just imagine what happens when the ice does finally
melt in the poles... what chance of cold, snowy weather for the UK by
then?


http://www.thedayaftertomorrow.com/s...d/uk/index.php


--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------



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