Any insights into the model discomfort?
A complete split in the models, GFS and Arpege have the low hanging west
of Ireland and coming over the UK 22 May, ECMWF, Germany/Canada are
still with 20 May.
To me it looks as though 19 May GFS is entraining a mid-Atlantic warm
plume and the others are not. NHC has not had its interest piqued,
although the origin of this storm was not far from the approx 26 deg
warm surface Gulf Stream finger of this SST image, passing off Cape Hatteras
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_sst_large.gif


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Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm