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Old January 3rd 19, 05:48 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Shifted to 08 Jan , still with over the UK as the counterbalance or
whatever.


Moved to 06 Jan and the concurrent balancing "negative warming" over the
North Sea

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Old January 5th 19, 01:57 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On 03/01/2019 17:48, N_Cook wrote:
Shifted to 08 Jan , still with over the UK as the counterbalance or
whatever.


Moved to 06 Jan and the concurrent balancing "negative warming" over the
North Sea


No idea if there is a causal link with the North Sea events 2 days
later. A storm heading to Scandinavia,somewhat rare forecast track of
doing a hand-brake turn into the North Sea, like the infamous Canvey
Island 1953 inundation, GFS giving it 55 to 60mph and consequential
wind-stress and marine surge for the Thames Estuary.

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Old January 6th 19, 06:49 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On 05/01/2019 13:57, N_Cook wrote:
No idea if there is a causal link with the North Sea events 2 days
later. A storm heading to Scandinavia,somewhat rare forecast track of
doing a hand-brake turn into the North Sea, like the infamous Canvey
Island 1953 inundation, GFS giving it 55 to 60mph and consequential
wind-stress and marine surge for the Thames Estuary.


The virtual surge at the NTSLF, has not reached Sheerness yet, 2m for
Cromer so far, not coinciding with their high tide though

https://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/l...st?port=Cromer


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Old January 6th 19, 07:37 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Looks like the peak residual is just after low water fortunately.

https://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/l...=Cromer&chrt=4

--
Freddie
Ystrad Rhondda
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Old January 6th 19, 08:55 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On 06/01/2019 19:37, Freddie wrote:
Looks like the peak residual is just after low water fortunately.

https://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/l...=Cromer&chrt=4


Similar storm track , 13 Jan 2017, with 3m residual at Sheerness, but
again, unlike 1953, timing was between high tides all along the E
England+Scotland North Sea coastline.



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Old January 10th 19, 08:47 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper and I could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may or may not have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't answer was what causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick search and I couldn't find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS has no
trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the significance a week or 2
after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of the 06 Jan 2019 one?

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Old January 10th 19, 09:07 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

In message , N_Cook
writes
On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper and I
could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may or may not
have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't answer was what
causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick search and I couldn't
find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS has no
trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the significance a week or 2
after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of the 06 Jan 2019 one?


I've read that it takes typically 2-3 weeks for the effects of a SSW to
make themselves felt down in the troposphere. So yes.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
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Old January 10th 19, 09:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On Thursday, 10 January 2019 09:09:22 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper and I
could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may or may not
have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't answer was what
causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick search and I couldn't
find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS has no
trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the significance a week or 2
after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of the 06 Jan 2019 one?


I've read that it takes typically 2-3 weeks for the effects of a SSW to
make themselves felt down in the troposphere. So yes.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)


Quite a nice little summery for the masses on the BBC feed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/featur...e=news_central

Keith (Southend)
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Old January 10th 19, 09:46 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 9:09:22 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper and I
could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may or may not
have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't answer was what
causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick search and I couldn't
find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS has no
trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the significance a week or 2
after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of the 06 Jan 2019 one?


I've read that it takes typically 2-3 weeks for the effects of a SSW to
make themselves felt down in the troposphere. So yes.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)


Being a bit cynical, I cant' help noticing that every cold spell we get seems to be down to SSW. If it occurs at the same time or just after, then it's the cause. If it occurs 3 weeks after, it's still the cause due to the reason you describe.

I appreciate it takes time to work down to the troposphere, but it is rapidly become the explanation for all our cold spells (makes a change from SST anomalies or El Nino I suppose) without (seemingly) anyone doing a decent job of explaining a the formation SSW event. What explanations there are being at a very general level, as this thread demonstrates. Similar to geography 'O' level (ox-bow lakes are caused by a river meandering) without any explanation of why rivers meander.

Wait for the next fashionable explanation.

Graham
Penzance

Glorious sunny moring after the 1st air frost (-0.1C) of the winter.

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Old January 10th 19, 10:08 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default What causes (Sudden) Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

On Thursday, 10 January 2019 09:46:08 UTC, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 9:09:22 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper and I
could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may or may not
have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't answer was what
causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick search and I couldn't
find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS has no
trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the significance a week or 2
after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of the 06 Jan 2019 one?


I've read that it takes typically 2-3 weeks for the effects of a SSW to
make themselves felt down in the troposphere. So yes.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)


Being a bit cynical, I cant' help noticing that every cold spell we get seems to be down to SSW. If it occurs at the same time or just after, then it's the cause. If it occurs 3 weeks after, it's still the cause due to the reason you describe.

I appreciate it takes time to work down to the troposphere, but it is rapidly become the explanation for all our cold spells (makes a change from SST anomalies or El Nino I suppose) without (seemingly) anyone doing a decent job of explaining a the formation SSW event. What explanations there are being at a very general level, as this thread demonstrates. Similar to geography 'O' level (ox-bow lakes are caused by a river meandering) without any explanation of why rivers meander.

Wait for the next fashionable explanation.

Graham
Penzance

Glorious sunny moring after the 1st air frost (-0.1C) of the winter.


Good point Graham..

Keith (Southend)


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