uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old September 12th 18, 11:15 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then a
cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave height
under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low, considering its only
giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to Carolinas landfall

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Old September 12th 18, 12:35 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 12:15:34 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then a
cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave height
under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low, considering its only
giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to Carolinas landfall


Nothing out of the ordinary on Magic Seaweed yet, which is largely GFS based
At least up 'til next Tuesday, after that date is basically guesswork
https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

It does reach 6-9' at Sennen next Tuesday, but it was that sort of height last Monday when the period was longer & therefore the swell was more powerful. (I speak from experience!)

The most powerful swell in the forecast is on Monday when the swell is smaller (5-7') but the period when the swell arrives in 17secs, which makes it powerful, but still nothing out of the ordinary. Could be a great surfing day though.

Time will tell.

Just pleased I'm not in Carolina.

Graham
Penzance
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Old September 12th 18, 02:59 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 12:15:34 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then a
cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave
height under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low,
considering its only giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to
Carolinas landfall


Nothing out of the ordinary on Magic Seaweed yet, which is largely
GFS based At least up 'til next Tuesday, after that date is basically
guesswork https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

It does reach 6-9' at Sennen next Tuesday, but it was that sort of
height last Monday when the period was longer & therefore the swell
was more powerful. (I speak from experience!)

The most powerful swell in the forecast is on Monday when the swell
is smaller (5-7') but the period when the swell arrives in 17secs,
which makes it powerful, but still nothing out of the ordinary. Could
be a great surfing day though.

Time will tell.

Just pleased I'm not in Carolina.

Graham
Penzance


Significant wave heights up to 25 metres were measured by satellite in
the NE quadrant of Florence this morning.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
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Old September 12th 18, 03:04 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

Norman Lynagh wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 12:15:34 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then
a cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave
height under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low,
considering its only giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to
Carolinas landfall


Nothing out of the ordinary on Magic Seaweed yet, which is largely
GFS based At least up 'til next Tuesday, after that date is
basically guesswork https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

It does reach 6-9' at Sennen next Tuesday, but it was that sort of
height last Monday when the period was longer & therefore the swell
was more powerful. (I speak from experience!)

The most powerful swell in the forecast is on Monday when the swell
is smaller (5-7') but the period when the swell arrives in 17secs,
which makes it powerful, but still nothing out of the ordinary.
Could be a great surfing day though.

Time will tell.

Just pleased I'm not in Carolina.

Graham
Penzance


Significant wave heights up to 25 metres were measured by satellite in
the NE quadrant of Florence this morning.



This puts Florence into some sort of understandable context for those
of us in the UK.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1039891556705218562

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
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Old September 12th 18, 03:23 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

On 12/09/2018 16:04, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Norman Lynagh wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 12:15:34 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then
a cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave
height under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low,
considering its only giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to
Carolinas landfall

Nothing out of the ordinary on Magic Seaweed yet, which is largely
GFS based At least up 'til next Tuesday, after that date is
basically guesswork https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

It does reach 6-9' at Sennen next Tuesday, but it was that sort of
height last Monday when the period was longer & therefore the swell
was more powerful. (I speak from experience!)

The most powerful swell in the forecast is on Monday when the swell
is smaller (5-7') but the period when the swell arrives in 17secs,
which makes it powerful, but still nothing out of the ordinary.
Could be a great surfing day though.

Time will tell.

Just pleased I'm not in Carolina.

Graham
Penzance


Significant wave heights up to 25 metres were measured by satellite in
the NE quadrant of Florence this morning.



This puts Florence into some sort of understandable context for those
of us in the UK.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1039891556705218562


Only 8 days ago, GFS had the projected path of Hurricane Florence to be
the UK


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Old September 12th 18, 03:28 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 4:23:52 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 12/09/2018 16:04, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Norman Lynagh wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 12:15:34 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Impressive set of storms for UK&Eire, starting with Helene, then
a cyclogenesis enhanced monster from Canada.
Impressive winds, such that NWW3 06Z run is giving 10m sig wave
height under Helene then and 12m under the "Canadian" low,
considering its only giving 12m under florence tomorrow , prior to
Carolinas landfall

Nothing out of the ordinary on Magic Seaweed yet, which is largely
GFS based At least up 'til next Tuesday, after that date is
basically guesswork https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

It does reach 6-9' at Sennen next Tuesday, but it was that sort of
height last Monday when the period was longer & therefore the swell
was more powerful. (I speak from experience!)

The most powerful swell in the forecast is on Monday when the swell
is smaller (5-7') but the period when the swell arrives in 17secs,
which makes it powerful, but still nothing out of the ordinary.
Could be a great surfing day though.

Time will tell.

Just pleased I'm not in Carolina.

Graham
Penzance

Significant wave heights up to 25 metres were measured by satellite in
the NE quadrant of Florence this morning.



This puts Florence into some sort of understandable context for those
of us in the UK.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1039891556705218562


Only 8 days ago, GFS had the projected path of Hurricane Florence to be
the UK


Which clearly demonstrates why not to take model output for 8 days ahead too seriously.

Graham
Penzance Very diffuse northern edge to the cold front, which didn't drop any measurable rain.
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Old September 12th 18, 05:10 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 11:23:52 AM UTC-4, N_Cook wrote:


Only 8 days ago, GFS had the projected path of Hurricane Florence to be
the UK


========

I wouldn't use the word "only". That's a decently long lead time, especially when it comes to modelling hurricane tracks, and particularly if looking only at the GFS deterministic.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN
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Old September 12th 18, 05:27 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

On 12/09/2018 18:10, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 11:23:52 AM UTC-4, N_Cook wrote:


Only 8 days ago, GFS had the projected path of Hurricane Florence to be
the UK


========

I wouldn't use the word "only". That's a decently long lead time, especially when it comes to modelling hurricane tracks, and particularly if looking only at the GFS deterministic.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN


Fascinating read the NHC discussion docs, pity I don't understand a lot
of it. One thing I keep noticing is reference to the "statistical "
models, compared to numerical models. Can statistics be sensibly applied
to a situation that spans half an ocean .
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Old September 13th 18, 07:28 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

NHC has spun up Joyce to join the heady mix
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents
and a track consensus for W Europe next week
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_96.gif




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Old September 14th 18, 02:28 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Storm sequence next week

If ex-hurricane Helene veered , so the strong wind regime moved from the
presently predicted path into the Irish Sea, to the English Channel then
something like a 2m surge would be possible locally in Southampton, on
only an underlying neap tide though.
NOAA NWW3 still going for 12m east-going waves in the Channel Approaches
is roughly consistent with that.





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