uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1   Report Post  
Old August 5th 18, 07:10 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default TD4/Debby/Storm97 for the UK

One to keep an eye on, 10/11 August 2018

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_97.gif

MetO giving it 987mB , plus whatever will be going on over the North Sea
about that time

  #2   Report Post  
Old August 6th 18, 08:24 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default TD4/Debby/Storm97 for the UK

On 05/08/2018 08:10, N_Cook wrote:
One to keep an eye on, 10/11 August 2018

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_97.gif

MetO giving it 987mB , plus whatever will be going on over the North Sea
about that time


Fewer models going for tropical storm status than for plain depression,
97AL on here
https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/

  #3   Report Post  
Old August 7th 18, 07:22 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default TD4/TS4/Debby/Storm97/97AL for the UK

NHC has upped the likelihood of enhancement again.
I hope the human experts get involved as I assume it can now only be
baroclinic enhancement, if that, now over colder water. Of the 10
spaghetti models only 1 goes for just touching Cat 1 hurricane wind
status by UK waters and I've no idea of the standing of that SHF5 model
compared to the other 9 giving it next to no enhancement, but the track
seems fairly certain for UK rather than Iberia etc.
MetO has decided its going much farther north and of little oomph



  #4   Report Post  
Old August 7th 18, 03:08 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default TS Debby for the UK

NHC has upped to subtropical storm status
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../071455.shtml?

  #5   Report Post  
Old August 9th 18, 07:53 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default ex-TS Debby for the UK

latest NHC assessment, the 02:00 09 Aug report would usually be out by
now 08:45 of typing , eagerly awaited
"DEBBY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED"
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/090241.shtml
190
WTNT44 KNHC 090241
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

A very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than
previously estimated. The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,
and since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with
a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. Although the relatively compact
tropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the
thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the
center due to about 15 kt of wind shear. Debby is currently over
fairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler
water during the next 24 to 36 hours. These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause
weakening and extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast
shows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating
shortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13
kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone
opens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 42.8N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 44.4N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 46.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


  #6   Report Post  
Old August 9th 18, 09:20 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default ex-TS Debby for the UK

I suppose the question for southern UK is whether there is a chance of
Debby maintaining a separate identity and with faster "over-ground"
track speed will avoid coalescing with the low to the north.
Does anyone here know, I assume that the hurricane specific model plots
detailed here ,

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_04.gif

are from the internal physics of such systems, considered in isolation
from any surrounding meteorology, ie the apparent (south uk-ward) tracks
in the plot will not necessarily become reality.
Latest assessment from the experts

WTNT44 KNHC 090837
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

Debby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst
of deep convection having recently developed just south of the
low-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has
deteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there
are no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier
40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial
intensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent
with an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity
estimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB.

Debby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion
estimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected
as Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a
fast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open
up into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster
than 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold
waters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle
of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

Although Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a
tight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and
south of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air
from the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until
dissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly
become extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly
thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 43.6N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 45.4N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

  #7   Report Post  
Old August 9th 18, 10:07 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jun 2016
Posts: 2,129
Default ex-TS Debby for the UK

N_Cook wrote:

I suppose the question for southern UK is whether there is a chance
of Debby maintaining a separate identity and with faster
"over-ground" track speed will avoid coalescing with the low to the
north. Does anyone here know, I assume that the hurricane specific
model plots detailed here ,

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_04.gif

are from the internal physics of such systems, considered in
isolation from any surrounding meteorology, ie the apparent (south
uk-ward) tracks in the plot will not necessarily become reality.


Lots of interesting stuff here (watch out for line wrap):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/...ectYear=2018&s
electBasin=North%20Atlantic&selectStorm=DEBBY04L

From this lot it doesn't look at all likely that there'll be any
significant impact on the British Isles.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr
  #8   Report Post  
Old August 9th 18, 10:40 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default ex-TS Debby for the UK

On 09/08/2018 11:07, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

I suppose the question for southern UK is whether there is a chance
of Debby maintaining a separate identity and with faster
"over-ground" track speed will avoid coalescing with the low to the
north. Does anyone here know, I assume that the hurricane specific
model plots detailed here ,

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...s/storm_04.gif

are from the internal physics of such systems, considered in
isolation from any surrounding meteorology, ie the apparent (south
uk-ward) tracks in the plot will not necessarily become reality.


Lots of interesting stuff here (watch out for line wrap):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/...ectYear=2018&s
electBasin=North%20Atlantic&selectStorm=DEBBY04L

From this lot it doesn't look at all likely that there'll be any
significant impact on the British Isles.


Even more projected tracks.
They've apparently got tracks specific somehow to Debby out to 120 hours
, all beyond me unless its the non-merger situation.
GFS 06Z run has it still coalescing , but the first hint that it could
run fast enough below the low to its north and avoid coalescing
  #9   Report Post  
Old August 10th 18, 06:39 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,271
Default ex-TS Debby for the UK

Hopefully because it is "experimental" there is always one outlier,
always its designation varying , that gives Debby Cat 2 hurricane
intensity at some point in the near future, presumably ignorable

https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/




Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules

Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Tropical Storm Debby Liam Steele[_2_] uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 3 June 25th 12 10:51 PM
Enter Debby Weatherlawyer alt.talk.weather (General Weather Talk) 3 August 27th 06 05:56 AM
Enter Debby Keith (Southend) uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 3 August 27th 06 02:54 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 08:48 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004-2018 Weather Banter.
The comments are property of their posters.
 

About Us

"It's about Weather"

 

Copyright © 2017