Forecasting - How it's done?
 

From the Twitter page of the NWS Nasville Forecast Office

---------------------------------------
Overheard at the weather office...
Forecaster A: We can't put snow in the forecast. We just can't.
Forecaster B: Some of the models are putting in actual snowfall amounts.
Forecaster A: So let's just take the worst case and best case, average
them together, then set all resulting positive integers to zero.
Forecaster B: Sounds good. I really don't want to get everyone stirred
up just yet. We'll punt to the next shift.
Narrator: Two hours later, they put snow in the forecast.
---------------------------------------

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Forecasting - How it's done?
 

On Monday, March 12, 2018 at 2:51:33 PM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
From the Twitter page of the NWS Nasville Forecast Office

---------------------------------------
Overheard at the weather office...
Forecaster A: We can't put snow in the forecast. We just can't.
Forecaster B: Some of the models are putting in actual snowfall amounts.
Forecaster A: So let's just take the worst case and best case, average
them together, then set all resulting positive integers to zero.
Forecaster B: Sounds good. I really don't want to get everyone stirred
up just yet. We'll punt to the next shift.
Narrator: Two hours later, they put snow in the forecast.
---------------------------------------

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

The machine/man mix.
Absolutely essential IMHO.
There are all sorts of things to take account of.
Not least experience of the releibility of NWP output and the reaction of the
general public to wrong forecasts.

Len
Wembury