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Old May 11th 19, 03:10 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On 11/05/2019 15:40, Freddie wrote:
On Saturday, 11 May 2019 14:21:33 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Unhealthy looking aggregator plot
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc_global_extent_byyear_b.png
makes you wonder if global sea-ice will ever reach 22 million again.

Second week of June if you follow recent history on the graphs. It'll be interesting to see in 4 weeks time if that is a good estimate or not :-)


Mid 2016 was the end of the last El Nino , since then the previous
long-term global sea-ice total minima were in 2017 and 2018 when it was
El Nina or neutral.
What is the large volcano eruption index like , to compensate?
What time-lag between El Nino and global or uni-polar sea-ice effect, if
any?

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Old May 12th 19, 04:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On 11/05/2019 14:21, N_Cook wrote:
Unhealthy looking aggregator plot
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc_global_extent_byyear_b.png

makes you wonder if global sea-ice will ever reach 22 million again.
Gone beyond the half million deficit, Charctic gives record deficit of
any 10 May of the satellite era as 509,000 sq km.

A few spot evaluations of the latest "ENSO" figures from pixel counting
of the NOAA SST anomaly plots for the El Nino sea area.
year day, El Nino anomaly, last official rolling quarter output +0.8
112: Nino +0.93 degree C
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89
129: Nino +0.87


Despite the upswing of the graphic plot, for any 11 May, deficit of 505
sq km so no change.
By June 2019 we should know whether El Nino has reached peak or just a
hatus.
From
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass
El Nino seems to increase height of Antarctic sea-ice but lose mass, I
assume as the mass loss will be more at the perimeter and assume more
friable there, that implies less area/extent of sea-ice, and no
observable lag .
For the Arctic , with El Nino comes more cloud cover and so warmer
winter, coming out of there.


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Old May 13th 19, 12:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass

There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km
  #84   Report Post  
Old May 14th 19, 12:56 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km


Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3.4
sea-area.
  #85   Report Post  
Old May 15th 19, 12:36 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

Deficit for any 14 May, increased to 538,000 sq km

For anyone near Southampton , next week, a public talk

Tuesday 21 May 2019 Anna Leveridge, Soton Uni : Exploring past
environments through the analysis of peat bog cores.
venue: St Denys Community Centre, Main Hall, corner of Adelaide Rd and
Priory Rd, SO17 2JZ, time 20:00 to 21:30

Monthly talks on a science subject
details of the venue etc
www.diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm


  #86   Report Post  
Old May 15th 19, 01:35 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On Tuesday, 14 May 2019 13:56:08 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km


Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3..4
sea-area.



Interesting about an upswing in El Nino, Norman. The Aussie BOM thinks the opposite! I’m caught in two minds about its development. Many temperature indicators on the NOAA site seem to have ticked downwards over the last couple of weeks., but nothing in ENSO production is nailed on.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
  #87   Report Post  
Old May 15th 19, 03:26 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On 15/05/2019 14:35, wrote:
On Tuesday, 14 May 2019 13:56:08 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km


Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3..4
sea-area.



Interesting about an upswing in El Nino, Norman. The Aussie BOM thinks the opposite! I’m caught in two minds about its development. Many temperature indicators on the NOAA site seem to have ticked downwards over the last couple of weeks., but nothing in ENSO production is nailed on.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I don't know what sea-area SST Oz monitors for El Nino spotting.
Also pixel counting is not a precise science , plenty of chance of
"observer bias".
Someone else should give it a go. This is my method.
Select the NOAA 3.4 sea-area
Enlarge 400% for ease of processing.
Create panorama conflation with the colour scale section in IrfanView
I surprisingly can still use (probably) Windows 3.1 version of
Microsoft Photo Editor of 1996 vintage , on Win7, but presumably later
graphics packages will work.
Select transparency and select colour bin +/-3%
Count the grey squares in the pic of each bin "colour" and multiply by
0.25,0.75 etc.
Combined SST is sum of those products divided by the total number of
grey squares.


  #88   Report Post  
Old May 15th 19, 04:26 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On Wednesday, 15 May 2019 16:26:17 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/05/2019 14:35, wrote:
On Tuesday, 14 May 2019 13:56:08 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km

Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3..4
sea-area.



Interesting about an upswing in El Nino, Norman. The Aussie BOM thinks the opposite! I’m caught in two minds about its development. Many temperature indicators on the NOAA site seem to have ticked downwards over the last couple of weeks., but nothing in ENSO production is nailed on.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I don't know what sea-area SST Oz monitors for El Nino spotting.
Also pixel counting is not a precise science , plenty of chance of
"observer bias".
Someone else should give it a go. This is my method.
Select the NOAA 3.4 sea-area
Enlarge 400% for ease of processing.
Create panorama conflation with the colour scale section in IrfanView
I surprisingly can still use (probably) Windows 3.1 version of
Microsoft Photo Editor of 1996 vintage , on Win7, but presumably later
graphics packages will work.
Select transparency and select colour bin +/-3%
Count the grey squares in the pic of each bin "colour" and multiply by
0.25,0.75 etc.
Combined SST is sum of those products divided by the total number of
grey squares.

They very likely do similar to the above already - there are some clever bods in both NOAA and BOM :-)

BOM and NOAA both monitor the same sea areas, but have different thresholds for defining an event (For El Nino, NOAA use +0.5, BOM use +0.8). This is because an event requires more "oomph" to have an effect on the Australian weather.

From what I've read, sub surface sea temperatures are on the way down, and this will affect SSTs eventually.

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201905MAY.xlsx
  #89   Report Post  
Old May 15th 19, 05:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On 15/05/2019 17:26, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 15 May 2019 16:26:17 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/05/2019 14:35, wrote:
On Tuesday, 14 May 2019 13:56:08 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km

Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3..4
sea-area.


Interesting about an upswing in El Nino, Norman. The Aussie BOM thinks the opposite! I’m caught in two minds about its development. Many temperature indicators on the NOAA site seem to have ticked downwards over the last couple of weeks., but nothing in ENSO production is nailed on.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I don't know what sea-area SST Oz monitors for El Nino spotting.
Also pixel counting is not a precise science , plenty of chance of
"observer bias".
Someone else should give it a go. This is my method.
Select the NOAA 3.4 sea-area
Enlarge 400% for ease of processing.
Create panorama conflation with the colour scale section in IrfanView
I surprisingly can still use (probably) Windows 3.1 version of
Microsoft Photo Editor of 1996 vintage , on Win7, but presumably later
graphics packages will work.
Select transparency and select colour bin +/-3%
Count the grey squares in the pic of each bin "colour" and multiply by
0.25,0.75 etc.
Combined SST is sum of those products divided by the total number of
grey squares.

They very likely do similar to the above already - there are some clever bods in both NOAA and BOM :-)

BOM and NOAA both monitor the same sea areas, but have different thresholds for defining an event (For El Nino, NOAA use +0.5, BOM use +0.8). This is because an event requires more "oomph" to have an effect on the Australian weather.

From what I've read, sub surface sea temperatures are on the way down, and this will affect SSTs eventually.


I forgot to say in a previous post , but again extremely marginal
evidence of Nino hiatus rather than peak.
As well as going from +0.87 to 0.88 for 13 May,
also for 09 May and not 13 May there was intrusion of 1 pixel or so of
-0.25 deg C colour bin, then the counter evidence of 2.25 deg C
intrusions .
Next NOAA output tomorrow, but it would be nice if someone else could do
some pixel counting, for comparison, as so marginal.
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Old May 15th 19, 06:39 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [CC] Global Sea Ice at record low

On Wednesday, 15 May 2019 18:24:42 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/05/2019 17:26, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 15 May 2019 16:26:17 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/05/2019 14:35, wrote:
On Tuesday, 14 May 2019 13:56:08 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/05/2019 13:54, N_Cook wrote:
I misinterpreted
"Both the ONI/ASL and ONI lines lag the ice shelf height plot by six
months to make it easier to see the similar pattern."
on
https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-causes-west-antarcticas-ice-shelves-gain-height-yet-lose-mass


There is a time difference and that time-shifted plot shows a tendency
for the ice-shelf height that lags the ONI plot, the opposite of what is
stated there, cart leading the horse.

As for record lack of sea-ice, for any 12 May, a deficit of 508,000 sq km

Deficit for any 13 May, increased to 519,000 sq km

Also first hint that El Nino
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
maybe hiatus and possible upswing now on, rather than having peaked
year-day, NOAA SST anomaly from pixel counting
91: Nino +0.93 deg C
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89 [1% in 2.25 deg C bin]
129: Nino +0.87 [0.3% in 2.25 deg C bin ]
133 (13 May 2019):Nino +0.88 [0% in 2.25 bin]

contra-indicator though of no 2.25 deg C intrusions into the Niño 3..4
sea-area.


Interesting about an upswing in El Nino, Norman. The Aussie BOM thinks the opposite! I’m caught in two minds about its development. Many temperature indicators on the NOAA site seem to have ticked downwards over the last couple of weeks., but nothing in ENSO production is nailed on.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I don't know what sea-area SST Oz monitors for El Nino spotting.
Also pixel counting is not a precise science , plenty of chance of
"observer bias".
Someone else should give it a go. This is my method.
Select the NOAA 3.4 sea-area
Enlarge 400% for ease of processing.
Create panorama conflation with the colour scale section in IrfanView
I surprisingly can still use (probably) Windows 3.1 version of
Microsoft Photo Editor of 1996 vintage , on Win7, but presumably later
graphics packages will work.
Select transparency and select colour bin +/-3%
Count the grey squares in the pic of each bin "colour" and multiply by
0.25,0.75 etc.
Combined SST is sum of those products divided by the total number of
grey squares.

They very likely do similar to the above already - there are some clever bods in both NOAA and BOM :-)

BOM and NOAA both monitor the same sea areas, but have different thresholds for defining an event (For El Nino, NOAA use +0.5, BOM use +0.8). This is because an event requires more "oomph" to have an effect on the Australian weather.

From what I've read, sub surface sea temperatures are on the way down, and this will affect SSTs eventually.


I forgot to say in a previous post , but again extremely marginal
evidence of Nino hiatus rather than peak.
As well as going from +0.87 to 0.88 for 13 May,
also for 09 May and not 13 May there was intrusion of 1 pixel or so of
-0.25 deg C colour bin, then the counter evidence of 2.25 deg C
intrusions .
Next NOAA output tomorrow, but it would be nice if someone else could do
some pixel counting, for comparison, as so marginal.


Thank you, both Freddie and Norman. As always, it will be interesting to see how this develops and what effects there will be on global temperatures. It may well be that there will be a record global April temperature on GISS and NOAA. It will be close.


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