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Old January 9th 18, 10:52 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

On Tue, 9 Jan 2018 12:51:46 -0800 (PST)
Len Wood wrote:

On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 5:15:56 PM UTC,
On 9 Jan 2018 15:51:22 GMT
"Norman Lynagh" wrote:

Richard Dixon wrote:

On Tuesday, 9 January 2018 11:42:19 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Next week is looking potentially very wintry with very cold air
sweeping across the country on strong W-NW winds. By Thu/Fri both
the ECMWF and GFS models have 1000-500mb thicknesses below 520dam
as far south as the Midlands in what would very probably be a very
showery airstream. There's potential for substantial snowfall over
western and northern areas, especially over high ground. It's still
a fair way off but certainly one to keep an eye on if you are
planning any travelling. My wife, for one, is due to travel from
Buckinghamshire to Tideswell on Friday next week. It might not be
too clever!

How rare is snow from cold NWlies? I suspect up north - especially on
hills up north it's a good source of snowfall, but in the SE? Would
be intrigued to understand coldness from NWlies and how this has
changed in frequency over time. May have to dig out some climate data
and have a look as I typically associate a cold NWly in SE with dry,
chilly and if you're very lucky the remnants of a shower through the
Cheshire Gap.

Richard

Cold NW'lies are a good source of snow for many parts of the country
but, as you say, the SE is an exception. In Tideswell, some of the
heaviest snowfalls I have seen in the 9 years that I have been here
have been in NW'lies. The airmass next week is forecast to be unusually
cold for a W-NW'ly. If it works out as forecast, and that's a very big
'if', there would almost certainly be a mass of showers streaming in
off the Atlantic on the strong wind and with the very low thickness
values these would be mostly of hail or snow. As I said, it's still a
long way off and well beyond the 5 days that I consider to be the
realistic limit for forecasting with any useful level of reliability.
Nevertheless, the models have been hinting at this development for a
few days. Interesting times ahead, perhaps.


NW is a good direction for Dartmoor. Been some very heavy snowfalls up here
over the years in cold Pm airmasses.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The output looks a bit chilly compared with the 30yr average but not winter
here in SW Devon at 83m asl. I've just managed to get rid of that awful beast
from the east which lasted a horrendous three days. Hopefully it won't return.
NWesterlies sometime come with some nice deep convection.
Giving hail, graupel or sleet. I am often struggling to identify the
difference between sleet and soft hail in my location. I appreciate sleet
splatters, but sometimes I can see a soft centre in it. As if it has not made
up its mind.

Does anyone else have soft centres?


No we get proper winter weather on Dartmoor. None of your south coast softie
stuff.


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Old January 10th 18, 11:20 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

On Tuesday, 9 January 2018 11:42:19 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Next week is looking potentially very wintry with very cold air
sweeping across the country on strong W-NW winds. By Thu/Fri both the
ECMWF and GFS models have 1000-500mb thicknesses below 520dam as far
south as the Midlands in what would very probably be a very showery
airstream. There's potential for substantial snowfall over western and
northern areas, especially over high ground. It's still a fair way off
but certainly one to keep an eye on if you are planning any travelling.
My wife, for one, is due to travel from Buckinghamshire to Tideswell on
Friday next week. It might not be too clever!


There's a low zipping across S England in the latest ECMWF (00Z 10th) that might make interesting viewing (way off, mind) but the trend seems to be for wriggles in the NWly flow that could give some coverings in the N / on high ground.

http://wxcharts.eu/charts/ecmwf/eura...jpg?2018011000

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...118-0000z.html

(Second chart may well be out of date come about 6pm)

Richard
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Old January 11th 18, 04:34 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 11:42:19 AM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Next week is looking potentially very wintry with very cold air
sweeping across the country on strong W-NW winds. By Thu/Fri both the
ECMWF and GFS models have 1000-500mb thicknesses below 520dam as far
south as the Midlands in what would very probably be a very showery
airstream. There's potential for substantial snowfall over western and
northern areas, especially over high ground. It's still a fair way off
but certainly one to keep an eye on if you are planning any travelling.
My wife, for one, is due to travel from Buckinghamshire to Tideswell on
Friday next week. It might not be too clever!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr


Still looking much the same, after perhaps a slight relapse over a couple of runs. Could last a while as well.

Graham
Penzance

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Old January 11th 18, 05:40 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

On 09/01/2018 14:35, N_Cook wrote:
I make storminess minimum values, as distinct from winteriness, for
this month around 21 Jan 2018 is 50, 25 Jan is 60 , 28 Jan is 56, so
peak around 25 Jan. Currently the 3 component value of 55
Around Storm Brian a value of 68 and Dylan a value of 62.


Storminess pointer up to 57, for the next week or so, from today's NOAA
SST anomoly output
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Old January 11th 18, 05:45 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 11:42:19 AM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Next week is looking potentially very wintry with very cold air
sweeping across the country on strong W-NW winds. By Thu/Fri both
the ECMWF and GFS models have 1000-500mb thicknesses below 520dam
as far south as the Midlands in what would very probably be a very
showery airstream. There's potential for substantial snowfall over
western and northern areas, especially over high ground. It's still
a fair way off but certainly one to keep an eye on if you are
planning any travelling. My wife, for one, is due to travel from
Buckinghamshire to Tideswell on Friday next week. It might not be
too clever!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr


Still looking much the same, after perhaps a slight relapse over a
couple of runs. Could last a while as well.

Graham
Penzance


Indeed it is. Today's 00z ECMWF run predicted steadily deepening snow
in this part of the country up till 24th, by which time it's predicted
to be around 30cm.. Still some way off but it does now seem fairly
certain that there will be a very cold and potentially snowy spell from
about Tuesday onwards. The length of the cold spell is more uncertain.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr


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Old January 11th 18, 09:41 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Winter next week?

Next week is looking potentially very wintry with very cold air
sweeping across the country on strong W-NW winds. By Thu/Fri both the
ECMWF and GFS models have 1000-500mb thicknesses below 520dam as far
south as the Midlands in what would very probably be a very showery
airstream. There's potential for substantial snowfall over western and
northern areas, especially over high ground. It's still a fair way off
but certainly one to keep an eye on if you are planning any travelling.
My wife, for one, is due to travel from Buckinghamshire to Tideswell on
Friday next week. It might not be too clever!


Could be interesting here too Norman if it comes off. Quite often with a
north west flow we can get some heavy snowfalls, especially if it's all
coming through the Cheshire Gap from the Liverpool Bay area.


Graham (Weston Coyney)




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