Probabilities for winter in London 2017/18
 

I wasn't going to bother this year but the models have piqued my interest yet again.
It is looking average overall. Whether that masks a yo-yo of cold to mild, or weeks of anticyclonic gloom is anyone's guess...

https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2yt

Probabilities for winter in London 2017/18
 

Arguably we are due for some snow this winter, having had nothing of note in London since 12/13.

That said, the run of winters from 08/09 to 12/13 was remarkably cold and snowy. So perhaps the present run of boring winters is just the celestial referee balancing things out 😊

Probabilities for winter in London 2017/18
 

On Friday, December 1, 2017 at 9:39:30 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I wasn't going to bother this year but the models have piqued my interest yet again.
It is looking average overall. Whether that masks a yo-yo of cold to mild, or weeks of anticyclonic gloom is anyone's guess...

https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2yt

Returning to this I was a bit out on precipitation otherwise not a bad effort. Blog review he https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2F8

"The mean temperature for winter 2017/18 is looking average overall with average precipitation. While that doesn’t sound exciting for anyone looking for colder weather and snow I think the figures mask frequent 3 or 4 day-long cold snaps from the Arctic interspersed with milder interludes from Atlantic incursions; typical characteristics of a pattern driven by the troposphere. For anything longer term we have to hope for a warming of the stratosphere, a sudden stratospheric warming over the Arctic, that downwells into the troposphere, reversing the general westerly circulation. We are overdue an ‘SSW’ event but, even if one were to happen, its effects wouldn’t be felt until much later in the winter."

Probabilities for winter in London 2017/18
 

In message ,
Scott W writes
"The mean temperature for winter 2017/18 is looking average overall
with average precipitation. While that doesn’t sound exciting for
anyone looking for colder weather and snow I think the figures mask
frequent 3 or 4 day-long cold snaps from the Arctic interspersed with
milder interludes from Atlantic incursions; typical characteristics of
a pattern driven by the troposphere. For anything longer term we have
to hope for a warming of the stratosphere, a sudden stratospheric
warming over the Arctic, that downwells into the troposphere, reversing
the general westerly circulation. We are overdue an ‘SSW’ event
but, even if one were to happen, its effects wouldn’t be felt until
much later in the winter."

You were certainly spot on with the last two sentences. But you didn't
pick up on the long periods of chilly - but (at least in the south) not
truly cold - WNW winds that were such an unusual feature of the winter.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)