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Old November 13th 17, 12:04 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by this
Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z run still
has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday. On a previous
run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the low to just show
a white blob.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]




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Old November 13th 17, 03:52 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by this
Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z run still
has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday. On a previous
run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the low to just show
a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]



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Old November 14th 17, 07:29 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On 13/11/17 15:52, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by this
Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z run
still has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday. On a
previous run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the low to
just show a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669


Another tweet from wxcharts:
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/930512622088278022

ARPEGE model (12Z run) has central pressure falling to 984hPa during
Saturday with mean winds in the eye-wall up to about 70kts.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]



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Old November 16th 17, 08:22 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On 14/11/17 19:29, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 15:52, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by this
Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z run
still has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday. On a
previous run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the low
to just show a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669


Another tweet from wxcharts:
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/930512622088278022

ARPEGE model (12Z run) has central pressure falling to 984hPa during
Saturday with mean winds in the eye-wall up to about 70kts.


12Z run from ARPEGE model still going for a Medicane with central
pressure dropping to 979hPa on Saturday and eye-wall mean winds
approaching 80kts.

Having said that, GFS and ECMWF have given up on this idea so ARPEGE
seems to be out on a limb.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]



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Old November 16th 17, 08:31 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On 16/11/17 20:22, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 14/11/17 19:29, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 15:52, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by
this Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z
run still has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday.
On a previous run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the
low to just show a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669


Another tweet from wxcharts:
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/930512622088278022

ARPEGE model (12Z run) has central pressure falling to 984hPa during
Saturday with mean winds in the eye-wall up to about 70kts.


12Z run from ARPEGE model still going for a Medicane with central
pressure dropping to 979hPa on Saturday and eye-wall mean winds
approaching 80kts.

Having said that, GFS and ECMWF have given up on this idea so ARPEGE
seems to be out on a limb.


Or not. HIRLAM is also going for the Medicane, central pressure 986hPa.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]





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Old November 17th 17, 02:19 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

Graham P Davis wrote:

On 16/11/17 20:22, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 14/11/17 19:29, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 15:52, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by
this Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z
run still has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday.
On a previous run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the
low to just show a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669


Another tweet from wxcharts:
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/930512622088278022

ARPEGE model (12Z run) has central pressure falling to 984hPa during
Saturday with mean winds in the eye-wall up to about 70kts.


12Z run from ARPEGE model still going for a Medicane with central pressure
dropping to 979hPa on Saturday and eye-wall mean winds approaching 80kts.

Having said that, GFS and ECMWF have given up on this idea so ARPEGE seems
to be out on a limb.


Or not. HIRLAM is also going for the Medicane, central pressure 986hPa.



It's looking more tropical by the minute on the satellite loop

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/visual

Perhaps that's an illusion resulting from the decreasing elevation of the sun.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr
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Old November 17th 17, 03:35 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On 17/11/17 14:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On 16/11/17 20:22, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 14/11/17 19:29, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 15:52, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 13/11/17 12:04, Graham P Davis wrote:
The GFS model was yesterday forecasting a Medicane to develop by
this Thursday. The threat has diminished in recent runs but the 06Z
run still has a 997hPa low near southern Greece early on Saturday.
On a previous run yesterday, the 500hPa contours had merged over the
low to just show a white blob.


Wxcharts have tweeted on this:
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/...69589496561669


Another tweet from wxcharts:
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/930512622088278022

ARPEGE model (12Z run) has central pressure falling to 984hPa during
Saturday with mean winds in the eye-wall up to about 70kts.


12Z run from ARPEGE model still going for a Medicane with central pressure
dropping to 979hPa on Saturday and eye-wall mean winds approaching 80kts.

Having said that, GFS and ECMWF have given up on this idea so ARPEGE seems
to be out on a limb.


Or not. HIRLAM is also going for the Medicane, central pressure 986hPa.



It's looking more tropical by the minute on the satellite loop

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/visual

Perhaps that's an illusion resulting from the decreasing elevation of the sun.


Thanks for that link.

Last(06Z) run of ARPEGE had the storm spending less time over the sea -
just headed straight for Greece - so hasn't developed it anywhere near
as much as before. HIRLAM also has lost the loop in the track but takes
it further south and so gives it a bit more time to get organised but
still as a weaker feature than previously.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]



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Old November 18th 17, 10:40 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On Friday, 17 November 2017 15:35:07 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:

Is that an eye I can now see?
https://en.sat24.com/en
This has been very well picked up by some models.
Regarding rainfall, Corfu in 10 days has had 348mm, that not including the last 24 hours.

Keith (Southend)
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Old Yesterday, 12:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On Saturday, 18 November 2017 10:40:13 UTC, Keith Harris wrote:
On Friday, 17 November 2017 15:35:07 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:

Is that an eye I can now see?


Nice animation he

https://twitter.com/Gary_Bywater/sta...11801343807490

Richard
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Old Yesterday, 09:04 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Medicane later this week?

On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 16:38:36 -0800 (PST)
Richard Dixon wrote:

On Saturday, 18 November 2017 10:40:13 UTC, Keith Harris wrote:
On Friday, 17 November 2017 15:35:07 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:

Is that an eye I can now see?


Nice animation he

https://twitter.com/Gary_Bywater/sta...11801343807490


Very #nice as he says (in reasonable English); quite #rare .
@@@@####


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