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Old October 13th 17, 07:23 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

I hope someone, more knowledgable than me, has told the people of the
south Eire coast (and as an outlier , in the Bristol Channel, as NHC has
upped their winds assesment and all numerical models must be outside
their comfort zones of the tweaks over the years), about the following,
if it has foundation. Would someone check my calculations on the -18
hour data and landfall of the centre of the storm.?
From Fig 5 correlation plot of the following
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...2013EI000527.1

(BTW I like the use of newspaper archives to fill in the data holes)
Assuming enough hurricane character remaining, bathymetry and general
theory applies to this side of Atlanyic etc.
I make the surge , on making landfall, 2.6 metres.
I somehow doubt a port like Castletown could absorb such a surge if
occuring at their high tide of 14:30 GMT , on Monday

I've not seen any figure put to the storm surge at any landfall in the
media yet

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Old October 13th 17, 09:17 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the
last 24 /36 hours. See
http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.

Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is
mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3).
The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any
standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size
is, considering the speed feature will be moving.



I haven't checked but perhaps the predicted forward movement is such that it
matches the speed of propagation of the waves thus effectively lengthening the
fetch of the strongest winds. Or, even more complicated, as the forward motion
increases perhaps the very strong wind field 'catches up' with swell that has
previously propagated away from the storm.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr


Yes, seems a likely explanation. This was 2004 when a depression moved north at just the right speed to generate an exceptional swell in Mount's Bay. http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/PzStorm.PDF

Current forecast for Sennen on Monday
Noon 3' 10sec
3pm 6-7' 19sec
6pm 20' 17sec


Graham



This morning

Forecast for Sennen on Monday
Noon 2-3' 9sec
3pm 4' 20sec
6pm 17' 18sec
9pm 22' 17sec
So forecasts still tending upwards

Probably as well the tides aren't too big.

Graham
Penzance
  #33   Report Post  
Old October 13th 17, 12:00 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

I've just run the GFS 06Z run isotachs thru my English Channel surge widget.
The timing nd strength of the baroclinic wind enhancemet has seriously
worsened.
For the noon high tide at Southampton , of mid spring/neap tides regime,
I get a surge of 2m , which places it the highest for over 100 years,
perhaps 1824, 1804 and 1703 were higher.
I hope someone more knowledgable than me hasa handle on all this, the
consequences for the Bristol channel and English Channel , not just
Eire, in terms of storm surges.
  #34   Report Post  
Old October 14th 17, 08:53 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

Anyone else suspect a problem with Meteociel.fr ?
I suspect an error in the timing of the www public presentation pages
for GFS 0Z runs, something to do with converting some American time zone
of GFS generation, GMT and Central European times.
The 06,12,18hr outputs , stepped back the relevant 6 hours tend to agree
but the 0hr one does not , whenever I do these series of processings of
met to tide conversions.

I've emailed the 3 oceanographers, concerning Ophelia surges, I'm in
contact with other stuff, historic surge events. They soon put me
straight if I'm on the wrong track, suspiciously nothing in reply so
far. I suspect they are all outside of their comfort zones, one
comfortable with Australasian Typhoon surges, one polar sea/met
interactions, the other coastal matters.

  #35   Report Post  
Old October 14th 17, 04:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ophelia

Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]





  #36   Report Post  
Old October 14th 17, 05:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ophelia

On Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 5:24:19 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]


It's the probable sea conditions which are giving more than a little cause for concern here.

50' swell's in winter can occur to the west of Ireland, but this time seems set to occur between the south coast of Eire, and Cornwall on Monday. In fact the the maximum swells associated with Ophelia are forecast to occur not that far west of Scilly. Also, the period (& therefore power) increases as the swell approaches Cornwall. Now 30' swell forecast to Sennen, 24 hours ago it was 22' This is now becoming exceptional (at least the forecast is - it hasn't happened yet). https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

A F8 offshore (SSW wind in the Cove (which faces north) should save it from an excessive surge. Could be very interesting in SW facing Porthleven.

The saving grace is that it's not Spring tides.

Graham
Penzance
  #37   Report Post  
Old October 14th 17, 06:08 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 908
Default Ophelia

On 14/10/2017 18:50, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 5:24:19 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]


It's the probable sea conditions which are giving more than a little cause for concern here.

50' swell's in winter can occur to the west of Ireland, but this time seems set to occur between the south coast of Eire, and Cornwall on Monday. In fact the the maximum swells associated with Ophelia are forecast to occur not that far west of Scilly. Also, the period (& therefore power) increases as the swell approaches Cornwall. Now 30' swell forecast to Sennen, 24 hours ago it was 22' This is now becoming exceptional (at least the forecast is - it hasn't happened yet). https://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/

A F8 offshore (SSW wind in the Cove (which faces north) should save it from an excessive surge. Could be very interesting in SW facing Porthleven.

The saving grace is that it's not Spring tides.

Graham
Penzance


Although all global models and the NHC agree on targetting
CastletownBere, I rely on the GFS isotachs. The when and where it is
placing the baroclinic wind enhancement is over the place .
Makes it impossible to say when and how much surge for the English
Channel. I suspect NTSLF surge predictor will be also unreliable.
  #38   Report Post  
Old October 15th 17, 08:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Ophelia

On 14/10/2017 17:24, Graham P Davis wrote:
Ophelia now a category 3 hurricane!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


I reckon a vote of thanks for these NHC forecasters
Brown, Stewart, Avila, Zelinsky, Brennan etc.
This is all well out of their remit area. In comparison the useless
waffle that comes out of the MetO.

Are there hints in the near real time synoptic geopotentials of the
track moving eastward a bit, so landfall nearer SE Ireland Waterford
area, rather than SW Eire Castletown area.

Also perhaps hints (GFS hi-res) of non fair weather over Soton for the
first High Water time, some rain, perhaps thunder (locally depressed dam
values in upper air and increased lower air turbulence, relative to the
rest of southern England ), potential marine flooding complications from
that.

Something and nothing at the moment
For GFS 00Z run data, widget surge predictions for
Newlyn +1.1m on their 0300 high tide
Soton second High Water +1.06m, to 5.26m

  #39   Report Post  
Old October 15th 17, 11:23 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

I don't remember hearing the word phenominal in the shipping forecast
before, force 12 yes.
"Northwest Fitzroy, Sole
Cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing storm 10 to hurricane force 12. Moderate or
rough, becoming very high, occasionally phenomenal later. Rain or
showers. Moderate or good, becoming poor or very poor
Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea
South backing southeast for a time 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to
violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12 in Fastnet.
Moderate, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal in
Fastnet. Rain later. Moderate or good, becoming poor later"


  #40   Report Post  
Old October 15th 17, 11:44 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

On Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 12:23:10 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I don't remember hearing the word phenominal in the shipping forecast
before, force 12 yes.
"Northwest Fitzroy, Sole
Cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing storm 10 to hurricane force 12. Moderate or
rough, becoming very high, occasionally phenomenal later. Rain or
showers. Moderate or good, becoming poor or very poor
Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea
South backing southeast for a time 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to
violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12 in Fastnet.
Moderate, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal in
Fastnet. Rain later. Moderate or good, becoming poor later"


I have, but not for a long time.

I see there is an orange warning for northern Ireland, even though the forecast wind speeds are below those forecast for parts Cornwall & Scilly,

Pembroke & Cornwall will take the full brunt of the swell - which is the real issue here, it'll be very powerful & very dangerous. Run this through Monday & see the difference between the orange warning area * Cornwall/Pembroke. https://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-.../1/?type=swell. Y

Plenty of action being taken here without waiting for an upgrade in the warning, even if the severe gale passes just to the west - which is distinctly possible, it's the sea that's likely to be the real issue. Sandbags, boats moved, that sort of thing. Porthcressa on St Mary's will be an interesting spot at high tide. Expect something on youtube from Porthleven, which will then get pinched for a news report.

It can be quite exciting at times being at the end of a long peninsula sticking into the north Atlantic, with nothing to dissipate the swell (unlike much of NW Scotland)

Graham
Penzance



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