uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old October 11th 17, 10:20 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Tuesday, October 10, 2017 at 8:28:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of
15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track,
where's Michael Fish when you need him.


There is something about this date and deep depressions - I found something similar happened in 1886. http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2rt

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Old October 12th 17, 08:23 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

On 11/10/2017 20:41, N_Cook wrote:
I've only just thought about looking at satellite image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg
If it quacks like a duck...

No raggedness at all.
Near real-time synoptics look nothing of any note at all currently.





I see the MetO is placing 962mB as its central pressure for 12Z 16 Oct.
Now to work out the windstress to surge developement for the English
Channel as it crosses the Channel Approaches.
Unfortunately no one seems to know what the inverse-barometer doming
component will be for the water dragged with it under its active
component status, dragged sort of this way. I'm not even sure the
NOC/MetO NTSLF can factor in , that component at a distance.
At least for my area , Southampton, the Newlyn tide gauge will show that.
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Old October 12th 17, 08:53 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is becoming more consistent.

The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the last 24 /36 hours. See http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.

Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3). The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size is, considering the speed feature will be moving.

As far as England & Wales is concerned, it looks like only Cornwall stands a fair chance of being affected.

We'll see in due course!

Graham
Penzance
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Old October 12th 17, 09:30 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and
there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than
the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be
honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much
tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical
transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be
a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit
our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is
becoming more consistent.

The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the
last 24 /36 hours. See
http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.

Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is
mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3).
The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any
standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size
is, considering the speed feature will be moving.



I haven't checked but perhaps the predicted forward movement is such that it
matches the speed of propagation of the waves thus effectively lengthening the
fetch of the strongest winds. Or, even more complicated, as the forward motion
increases perhaps the very strong wind field 'catches up' with swell that has
previously propagated away from the storm.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr
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Old October 12th 17, 09:44 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

On 12/10/2017 09:53, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is becoming more consistent.

The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the last 24 /36 hours. See http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.

Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3). The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size is, considering the speed feature will be moving.

As far as England & Wales is concerned, it looks like only Cornwall stands a fair chance of being affected.

We'll see in due course!

Graham
Penzance

Almost worth travelling to Cornwall to witness.
Locally, Southampton, for the current predicted winds passing through
the Channel Approaches and wind-stress induced component of surge ,
nothing exceptional on the residential marine flooding front, about 0.1m
less than the flooding of Valentines Day 2014.
Principally, though a 1.3m surge, on a mid-range tide, mid neap/springs;
but what I call a stealth tide, nothing of note meteorologically , but
the tide keeps rising due to winds far away.
How much hurricane induced inverse-barometer sea-water doming will be
sent into the English Channel, if any even, and added to that surge, is
a big unknown though.


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Old October 12th 17, 09:58 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Thursday, 12 October 2017 09:53:30 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is becoming more consistent.

The ensembles vary from having a sub-960 hPa low over southern Eire to a 1022 hPa high over the southwest approaches. Still plenty of variability, although a small minority of members are settling on a track similar to the published charts.


As far as England & Wales is concerned, it looks like only Cornwall stands a fair chance of being affected.

Possibly, but not a statement I would make due to the variability in solutions.


We'll see in due course!

Indeed! It'll be fascinating to watch how this pans out :-)

--
Freddie
Fishpool Farm
Hyssington
Powys
296m AMSL
http://www.fishpoolfarmweather.co.uk/
https://twitter.com/FishpoolFarmWx for hourly reports

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Old October 12th 17, 02:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

On Thursday, October 12, 2017 at 10:30:42 AM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and
there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than
the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be
honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much
tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical
transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be
a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit
our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is
becoming more consistent.

The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the
last 24 /36 hours. See
http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.

Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is
mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3).
The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any
standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size
is, considering the speed feature will be moving.



I haven't checked but perhaps the predicted forward movement is such that it
matches the speed of propagation of the waves thus effectively lengthening the
fetch of the strongest winds. Or, even more complicated, as the forward motion
increases perhaps the very strong wind field 'catches up' with swell that has
previously propagated away from the storm.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr


Yes, seems a likely explanation. This was 2004 when a depression moved north at just the right speed to generate an exceptional swell in Mount's Bay. http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/PzStorm.PDF

Current forecast for Sennen on Monday
Noon 3' 10sec
3pm 6-7' 19sec
6pm 20' 17sec
The sudden onset risks catching a few people out.

With the wind offshore in the cove, it should look impressive.

Assuming it happens as forecast!

Graham

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Old October 12th 17, 02:04 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia


Almost worth travelling to Cornwall to witness.



It's always worth travelling to Cornwall! http://gannetholidayapartment.co.uk/

Graham
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Old October 12th 17, 08:00 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia

Mildly interesting to get a name-check in the NHC commentary: 'Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for
the next several days.' Presumably that doesn't happen too often?

I also note the terminology in the NHC discussion: 'Ophelia is expected to
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when it
moves near Ireland and the UK.'





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Old October 12th 17, 08:16 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default TS Ophelia / Hurricane Ophelia

On 12/10/2017 21:00, JohnD wrote:
Mildly interesting to get a name-check in the NHC commentary: 'Residents
in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia
for the next several days.' Presumably that doesn't happen too often?

I also note the terminology in the NHC discussion: 'Ophelia is expected
to transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when
it moves near Ireland and the UK.'






That NHC discussion made me find out about "baroclinic low", this page
is compact and just about understandable to the techncal but otherwise
layman meterorologically speaking
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~storms/concep/baro_inst/



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