ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

Right through to next spring at least. Always interesting to see how global temperatures respond to ENSO changes. UAH has August as 3rd warmest on record and similar temperatures to last year. The world just isn't cooling from the last El Nino, even though we've had a short La Nina since then. These are unprecedented global temperatures in such an ENSO state, in recorded history.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.drroyspencer.com

ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 7:19:57 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Right through to next spring at least. Always interesting to see how global temperatures respond to ENSO changes. UAH has August as 3rd warmest on record and similar temperatures to last year. The world just isn't cooling from the last El Nino, even though we've had a short La Nina since then. These are unprecedented global temperatures in such an ENSO state, in recorded history.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.drroyspencer.com

Take a look at the N Atlantic SST anomaly. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png never seen it so warm.

It was actually a good deal cooler (overall) during the recent El Nino.

Graham
Penzance

ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 9:39:19 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 7:19:57 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Right through to next spring at least. Always interesting to see how global temperatures respond to ENSO changes. UAH has August as 3rd warmest on record and similar temperatures to last year. The world just isn't cooling from the last El Nino, even though we've had a short La Nina since then. These are unprecedented global temperatures in such an ENSO state, in recorded history.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.drroyspencer.com

Take a look at the N Atlantic SST anomaly. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png never seen it so warm.

It was actually a good deal cooler (overall) during the recent El Nino.

Graham
Penzance
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know its tempting to link ENSO with global temperatures, but if I remember correctly, there is a very poor correlation. The bottom line is we do not understand the driver of ENSO. Chicken or egg? Scrambled in this case.
Global warming must be one factor in the behaviour of ENSO. I can't understand why people think ENSO contributes to global warming.

Len
Wembury
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

SNIP

I can't understand why people think ENSO contributes to global warming.

Len
Wembury
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think it's because during El Nino there's a net transfer of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. Then, during the next part of the cycle the transfer is effectively reversed. It's really a just a cycle superimposed upon global warming. (Though global warming may affect the cycle of course!)

Graham

ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 9:39:19 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 7:19:57 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Right through to next spring at least. Always interesting to see how global temperatures respond to ENSO changes. UAH has August as 3rd warmest on record and similar temperatures to last year. The world just isn't cooling from the last El Nino, even though we've had a short La Nina since then. These are unprecedented global temperatures in such an ENSO state, in recorded history.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.drroyspencer.com

Take a look at the N Atlantic SST anomaly. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png never seen it so warm.

It was actually a good deal cooler (overall) during the recent El Nino.

Graham
Penzance

If you choose the latest monthly SST anomaly, N Atlantic is not quite so warm.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Len
Wembury

ENSO neutral likely for the foreseeable future
 

On Wednesday, 6 September 2017 10:56:14 UTC+1, wrote:
On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 9:39:19 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 at 7:19:57 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Right through to next spring at least. Always interesting to see how global temperatures respond to ENSO changes. UAH has August as 3rd warmest on record and similar temperatures to last year. The world just isn't cooling from the last El Nino, even though we've had a short La Nina since then. These are unprecedented global temperatures in such an ENSO state, in recorded history.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.drroyspencer.com

Take a look at the N Atlantic SST anomaly. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png never seen it so warm.

It was actually a good deal cooler (overall) during the recent El Nino.

Graham
Penzance
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know its tempting to link ENSO with global temperatures, but if I remember correctly, there is a very poor correlation. The bottom line is we do not understand the driver of ENSO. Chicken or egg? Scrambled in this case.
Global warming must be one factor in the behaviour of ENSO. I can't understand why people think ENSO contributes to global warming.

Len
Wembury
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two things, Len:

A. 'People' don't think ENSO contributes to GW, however, how global warming will contribute to the frequency and behaviour of ENSO in the future, is not known.

a. There is an excellent correlation between ENSO and global temperatures, with a time lag of around 3-6 months.