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Old July 8th 17, 11:01 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On Friday, 16 June 2017 11:20:44 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

Although John's report suggests more melting of the Arctic sea ice cap, these two charts show nothing to get excited about.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/mea...meanT_2017.png
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

But we live in interesting times!


We do indeed. We have an acknowledged expert telling us he used to do the ice for the Met Office or some such place.

I see that the ice build up in Antarctica was comprehensive through 2013. Do you suppose the Larsen Ice-field has suffered as a function of over-abundance or are you going to stick with the pack?

When large amounts of ice forms it tends to drop the temperature to the bottom of the sea, being cold, dense brine. Right?

What the OP should have stated is that a close-up in the surface cover actually indicates storms, not heating. But I am not the only one for whom maths poses difficulty apparently.

Without putting a storm archive on the graph page for cross-reference, it ends up becoming nonsense. So one has to ask the question: "What are the experts thinking?" or even: "Are the experts thinking?" to be honest I quit posting here because it became obvious that none of the f*cking experts were thinking and I didn't want to be associated with such losers, never mind their insistence on ignoring the finest forecaster on the planet.

I dare say I have hurt some of them but while they have their heads in the clouds they might have been looking at sea surface pressures.
Dumbeffecks. But who cares?
(One never knows.)

The puzzle now clarifies to how the ice build-up tends to follow volcanic periods. Since you referenced the man who made an hero out of Dawlish, I am willing to allow you a breathing space to get the answer in ahead of the self proclaimed experts, since they have no obvious insight.

The question is, you are fearless in pushing the boat out: Do you need to get into it or can you walk on water?

Speaking of boats, I don't know if I have read any of his books but the Vanner format tends to be repeated among such authors in that all their heroes experience all aspects of sailing life and gives the impression of realised geography that is far from the mundane truth.

A blockade ship tends to be a prison ship for the duration of any war, with long periods of not sighting anything large enough to catch, that is slow enough to catch if they see you first.

They face a long descent into disease if they don't get resupplied with fresh water once a month and the endemic gaol-fever, scurvy, malnutrition and insanity that goes with such conditions.

But what historian wants to write about that?
Not even Dickens. (I did try reading The Uncommercial Traveller once though.. Even that was boring. I don't think he had much grasp of storms.)

Thing about writing is that fantasy is not beyond bounds provided you don't leave your readers behind because you don't believe what is most commonly accepted.

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Old July 9th 17, 04:22 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On Thursday, 6 July 2017 12:57:04 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:
On Wednesday, 5 July 2017 08:57:43 UTC+1, Crusader wrote:
Hi all,

Having attended several meetings and discussions with scientists around the globe over the past few months, I have to say that new research indicates that the majority of ice thinning and loss of extent now appears to be as a result of diesel/oil soot particulates settling on the surface of ice and literally warming up in sunlight to melt the ice/snow and form those mysterious puddles across the arctic...thinning ice and causing it to fracture and break up quite readily.

Though mostly over the Arctic and most of the glaciers across the globe, this phenomenon seems now also to be affecting the Antarctic, but to a much to a lesser extent (probably because most Diesel particulates are generated in the Northern hemisphere.

My guess is that the various Antarctic bases using diesel generators and several types of snow moving vehicles cannot be helping...and in my opinion should be withdrawn to protect as much as possible from pollution of all types.

If you look at old (pre 1980s) footage or photographs of the Arctic, you see pure white snow and ice, but footage since then has increasingly shown a grey/black coating, rather like the pattern found on sandy beaches on windy days. This points to airborne deposition. These deposits have found to be oil/diesel particulates,and are not present in older ice layers beneath the surface in anywhere as much as years since the 1980s.

I have to draw the conclusion that diesel particulates are not just bad for human health, but are jeopardising the icy regions of the planet equally as severely.

We need to be ridding global society of diesel vehicles as much as possible,and installing air scrubbers on other equipment to minimise particulate emissions as soon as possible.
Please pass on these findings wherever you can to raise awareness and get as may people on board as you can...we cannot continue to let this happen. When you change your car, please do not go for diesel!

I hope that social media can do something constructive with this and get the world acting as soon as possible ...not just talking.

Please pass it on.

C


Well at least it does not seem to be driving the melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-00870-w


In the days I believed that the climatologists were not a pack of liars I used to believe much of the same when I was hearing about record breaking icebergs forming.

I supposed that is was due to oil tankers cleaning their bilges on the way back and dumping it in the sea on the way. And that the large tankers were spreading it off Cape Horn.

I have no doubt they still are but I have always doubted it was carbon dioxide that caused problems and now it is the same thing for particulates, as anyone with eyes can see if they look at the roofs of houses.

Detritus causes growth the same way that the the most fertile lands are used for vineyards, that is: They are a product of volcanic soil.

42 minutes in to the film Bottleshock:
https://youtu.be/QEzI7lm58nM?t=2584

Please pass it on.

He does.
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Old July 15th 17, 04:47 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On 15/06/2017 17:08, JohnD wrote:
See that there's some speculation that we might be heading for the
lowest sea ice extent _maximum_ in the recent record (at least as far as
the first (July) max of the year is concerned - last year the second
(Nov) max was no greater than the first). See eg:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...t_byyear_b.png



That measure seems to have peaked , and nothing to do with that Larsen C
berg, as despite its enormous area, Belgium-sized was it, barely 1 pixel
on that graph.

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Old July 15th 17, 05:06 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On Saturday, 15 July 2017 17:47:06 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/06/2017 17:08, JohnD wrote:
See that there's some speculation that we might be heading for the
lowest sea ice extent _maximum_ in the recent record (at least as far as
the first (July) max of the year is concerned - last year the second
(Nov) max was no greater than the first). See eg:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...t_byyear_b.png



That measure seems to have peaked , and nothing to do with that Larsen C
berg, as despite its enormous area, Belgium-sized was it, barely 1 pixel
on that graph.


That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
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Old July 15th 17, 06:03 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On 15/07/2017 18:06, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 15 July 2017 17:47:06 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/06/2017 17:08, JohnD wrote:
See that there's some speculation that we might be heading for the
lowest sea ice extent _maximum_ in the recent record (at least as far as
the first (July) max of the year is concerned - last year the second
(Nov) max was no greater than the first). See eg:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...t_byyear_b.png



That measure seems to have peaked , and nothing to do with that Larsen C
berg, as despite its enormous area, Belgium-sized was it, barely 1 pixel
on that graph.


That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


I was thinking the same thing. The other metric , the global sea-ice
anomaly , for the day of the year , has been going consistently positive
lately, ie more benign


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Old July 15th 17, 08:41 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On Saturday, 15 July 2017 19:03:42 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/07/2017 18:06, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 15 July 2017 17:47:06 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 15/06/2017 17:08, JohnD wrote:
See that there's some speculation that we might be heading for the
lowest sea ice extent _maximum_ in the recent record (at least as far as
the first (July) max of the year is concerned - last year the second
(Nov) max was no greater than the first). See eg:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...t_byyear_b.png



That measure seems to have peaked , and nothing to do with that Larsen C
berg, as despite its enormous area, Belgium-sized was it, barely 1 pixel
on that graph.


That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


I was thinking the same thing. The other metric , the global sea-ice
anomaly , for the day of the year , has been going consistently positive
lately, ie more benign


I think we will have to be patient. IMHO, we won't see any real action until August or September.
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Old July 16th 17, 02:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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"Alastair" wrote in message
...

That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the
Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent


Why strange? Arctic SIE is at near record low and loss is accelerating over
the past few days, ditto Antarctic SIE, also low for day in year and
accumulation slowing. Hence the flattish top to the global SIE data and the
marked drop over the past few days. (Based on NDISC SIE data - other data
should be broadly similar other than slightly different algorithms,
running-average periods etc)

All that's happening is that daily Arctic loss is now more than accounting
for Antarctic accumulation. Isn't this what you'd expect, though without
providing any guarantees about the endpoints in mid-September of course?


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Old July 16th 17, 03:51 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On 16/07/2017 15:02, JohnD wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message
...

That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the
Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent


Why strange? Arctic SIE is at near record low and loss is accelerating
over the past few days, ditto Antarctic SIE, also low for day in year
and accumulation slowing. Hence the flattish top to the global SIE data
and the marked drop over the past few days. (Based on NDISC SIE data -
other data should be broadly similar other than slightly different
algorithms, running-average periods etc)

All that's happening is that daily Arctic loss is now more than
accounting for Antarctic accumulation. Isn't this what you'd expect,
though without providing any guarantees about the endpoints in
mid-September of course?



Large characterisation difference between these 2 representations
area

https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...a_byyear_b.png

extent
https://sites.google.com/site/arctis...t_byyear_b.png

I don't know what it means in terms of proportionality, as to the amount
of leads in the ice, falsely interpreted melt-ponds as sea, or whatever
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Old July 16th 17, 04:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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On 16/07/2017 15:02, JohnD wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message
...

That's strange because there has been no sudden change of trend in the
Arctic sea ice extent or the Antarctic sea ice extent


Why strange? Arctic SIE is at near record low and loss is accelerating
over the past few days, ditto Antarctic SIE, also low for day in year
and accumulation slowing. Hence the flattish top to the global SIE data
and the marked drop over the past few days. (Based on NDISC SIE data -
other data should be broadly similar other than slightly different
algorithms, running-average periods etc)

All that's happening is that daily Arctic loss is now more than
accounting for Antarctic accumulation. Isn't this what you'd expect,
though without providing any guarantees about the endpoints in
mid-September of course?


yes, the on-this-day global sea-ice extent measure has dropped 35,000 sq
km per day over the last 4 days.
6 times the area of the A68 iceberg, every day.
Could the global extent/area disparity mean a more "porous"
general structure and more likelihood of rapid depletion? or is it just
a normal mismatch process, repeated every year?
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Old July 16th 17, 04:43 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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"N_Cook" wrote in message news
I don't know what it means in terms of proportionality, as to the amount of
leads in the ice, falsely interpreted melt-ponds as sea, or whatever


I'm really no expert at all, but isn't SIA always considered to be much less
reliable a metric than SIE, because of the obvious difficulties in making
the SIA assessments. And presumably this is going to be one of the extra
tricky times of year, ie when there's a lot of potentially rotten ice
around.



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