uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old January 16th 17, 10:14 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

Here is today's outlook for the SW from the MetO website.
"
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
It'll stay mostly cloudy, damp and mild over the next few days. There will
be some bright or sunny spells towards the end of the week though.

"

Meanwhile the automated forecast for Dartmoor are going for sunny on Weds
with maxes 1 to 4C depending on altitude. And similar conditions for rest of
the week. With drier and colder air nudging in on an undercut the auto
forecasts are looking much more likely. They also tie in with my own weekly
forecast issued last Friday.


Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------


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Old January 16th 17, 10:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

On Monday, January 16, 2017 at 11:14:53 AM UTC, wrote:
Here is today's outlook for the SW from the MetO website.
"
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
It'll stay mostly cloudy, damp and mild over the next few days. There will
be some bright or sunny spells towards the end of the week though.

"

Meanwhile the automated forecast for Dartmoor are going for sunny on Weds
with maxes 1 to 4C depending on altitude. And similar conditions for rest of
the week. With drier and colder air nudging in on an undercut the auto
forecasts are looking much more likely. They also tie in with my own weekly
forecast issued last Friday.


Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------


Not just for Dartmoor. For Penzance the text might say cloudy mild & damp, but Wednesday chart shows sun all day long - not a hint of a cloud.

I seriously think they are not sure where the frontal boundary will be, so they are covering all options, after all one'll be fairly OK.

Graham
Penzance (no repeat of yesterdays sunshine)
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Old January 16th 17, 05:15 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

On Monday, 16 January 2017 11:14:53 UTC, wrote:
Here is today's outlook for the SW from the MetO website.
"
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
It'll stay mostly cloudy, damp and mild over the next few days. There will
be some bright or sunny spells towards the end of the week though.

"

Meanwhile the automated forecast for Dartmoor are going for sunny on Weds
with maxes 1 to 4C depending on altitude. And similar conditions for rest of
the week. With drier and colder air nudging in on an undercut the auto
forecasts are looking much more likely. They also tie in with my own weekly
forecast issued last Friday.


Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------


I noticed that also for the SE of England. Looks like the South Easterly flow is going to drag in that drier and colder air in from the continent, with little modification from the short sea crossing. Expect to see some sharp frosts in the SE nearer the end of the week.

Wouldn't be surprised to see day time maximums colder than the so called cold spell we apparently have just had.
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Old January 16th 17, 06:13 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

Alan [Guildford] wrote:

On Monday, 16 January 2017 11:14:53 UTC, wrote:
Here is today's outlook for the SW from the MetO website.
"
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
It'll stay mostly cloudy, damp and mild over the next few days. There will
be some bright or sunny spells towards the end of the week though.

"

Meanwhile the automated forecast for Dartmoor are going for sunny on Weds
with maxes 1 to 4C depending on altitude. And similar conditions for rest
of the week. With drier and colder air nudging in on an undercut the auto
forecasts are looking much more likely. They also tie in with my own weekly
forecast issued last Friday.


Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another
sect believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------


I noticed that also for the SE of England. Looks like the South Easterly flow
is going to drag in that drier and colder air in from the continent, with
little modification from the short sea crossing. Expect to see some sharp
frosts in the SE nearer the end of the week.

Wouldn't be surprised to see day time maximums colder than the so called cold
spell we apparently have just had.



Slightly colder air reached Tideswell at about 1720z with the wind changing
from NW to SSE. Temp has fallen from 7.5° tp 6.0°. The change from the mild
NW'lies to the less mild SE'lies is very sharp.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr
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Old January 16th 17, 06:40 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
Slightly colder air reached Tideswell at about 1720z with the wind
changing from NW to SSE. Temp has fallen from 7.5° tp 6.0°. The change
from the mild NW'lies to the less mild SE'lies is very sharp.


The colder air reached Charlwood, the nearest MO site to me and some 10
miles to my east, in the small hours of this morning. It was 7.1C at
01:00, when the wind shifted to easterly (though only about 3-6 mph) and
the temperature began a steady fall, reaching 4.1 by 07:00. Since then
it's hardly varied, keeping between 3.5C and 4.1C.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)


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Old January 16th 17, 07:49 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default More crap inconsistent forecasting

I think going back to actual surface chart plotting and analysis would increase the accuracy of what is actually happening on the ground in reality.
Instead, virtual charts seem to be the way to analyse by model graphics these days using the T+0 time field.
Shame that the computer has won out for actual weather analysis as well as forecasting.



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