GFS T+324
 

Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png

GFS T+324
 

On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png


my browser does not show anything remarkable.
Are you referring to the apparent closely spaced contraflow jetstreams
over the full width of the north Atlantic with a spun up low between
them GFS+300 to +330hr ?

GFS T+324
 

On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png



I assume the dot-chain isotherms there, are for 500HPa

GFS T+324
 

On Thu, 29 Dec 2016 14:34:59 +0000, N_Cook wrote:

On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png


my browser does not show anything remarkable.
Are you referring to the apparent closely spaced contraflow jetstreams
over the full width of the north Atlantic with a spun up low between
them GFS+300 to +330hr ?

6 am run has the 850hPa temperature below -10C over the entire British
Isles (currently at T+348) and Central England maximum 2m temperature
at -5C. It will soon change, of course.

Having said that, there is a certain degree of consistency between
models and runs as to the cold northerly plunge at the end of next
week - 2 of 3 of the main models at that range suggest that it may
hang around for a while, so that's definitely one to watch.

--
Dave
Fareham (W)

GFS T+324
 

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 14:58:52 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png



I assume the dot-chain isotherms there, are for 500HPa

Yes so cold upper air with 500mb-1000mb thickness circa 512dam for South East England. The low would also bring significant dry snow for South East England. Highly Unlikely but nevertheless interesting set of charts for today's 6Z GFS at T+324

GFS T+324
 

Alan [Guildford] wrote:

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 14:58:52 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png



I assume the dot-chain isotherms there, are for 500HPa

Yes so cold upper air with 500mb-1000mb thickness circa 512dam for South East
England. The low would also bring significant dry snow for South East
England. Highly Unlikely but nevertheless interesting set of charts for
today's 6Z GFS at T+324

.......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

GFS T+324
 

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 15:59:26 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Alan [Guildford] wrote:

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 14:58:52 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png



I assume the dot-chain isotherms there, are for 500HPa

Yes so cold upper air with 500mb-1000mb thickness circa 512dam for South East
England. The low would also bring significant dry snow for South East
England. Highly Unlikely but nevertheless interesting set of charts for
today's 6Z GFS at T+324

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Indeed

GFS T+324
 

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
Alan [Guildford] wrote:

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 14:58:52 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 29/12/2016 13:57, Alan [Guildford] wrote:
Obviously out in fantasy land but something to dream about :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_324_1.png



I assume the dot-chain isotherms there, are for 500HPa

Yes so cold upper air with 500mb-1000mb thickness circa 512dam for South East
England. The low would also bring significant dry snow for South East
England. Highly Unlikely but nevertheless interesting set of charts for
today's 6Z GFS at T+324

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

GFS T+324
 

In message , John Hall
writes
In message , Norman Lynagh
writes

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

The 12Z GFS operational is now out. Somewhat to my surprise, it keeps a
pronounced cold spell, albeit not so extreme or long-lasting as in the
06Z run. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF comes up with
when it becomes available, though the cold spell - if it should happen -
begins pretty much at the end of the 10 day period that ECMWF forecasts
for.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

GFS T+324
 

On 29/12/2016 17:02, John Hall wrote:
In message , John Hall
writes
In message , Norman Lynagh
writes

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles
at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

The 12Z GFS operational is now out. Somewhat to my surprise, it keeps a
pronounced cold spell, albeit not so extreme or long-lasting as in the
06Z run. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF comes up with
when it becomes available, though the cold spell - if it should happen -
begins pretty much at the end of the 10 day period that ECMWF forecasts
for.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We should probably be looking at things closer to now. I wouldn't be
surprised to see a little snow on the back edge of the cold front as it
moves through in the early hours of this Monday. Won't hang around but a
couple of coldish days. Then I would imagine most of the first half of
January will be at least on the cold side with a fair amount of
blocking. Where the various HP's end up of course will be critical to
the extent of any cold or snow but I think I am prepared to say "at
least it won't be mild" ;-) A few days like today wouldn't be bad either!
Dave

---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

GFS T+324
 

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z.
To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.
I agree Norman as far as I concerned totally useless, not sure why they
bother:)


Graham

GFS T+324
 

On 29/12/2016 16:43, John Hall wrote:


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

But it's cold *now*...


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

GFS T+324
 

On Fri, 30 Dec 2016 07:15:29 +0000, Vidcapper
wrote:

But it's cold *now*...

Not here it isn't. Currently 11.1°C.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather

GFS T+324
 

In message , Vidcapper
writes
On 29/12/2016 16:43, John Hall wrote:


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

But it's cold *now*...



Here in my p[art of Surrey, it's not been what I'd call properly cold.
Yes, quite sharp frosts at night, but (prior to today) the days have
been very pleasant, with lots of sun, light winds and maxima of 5C or
so. Today's been very different, unfortunately, with fog persisting all
day for the first time in a year or two and the temperature only a
couple of degrees above freezing.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

GFS T+324
 

On Friday, December 30, 2016 at 4:35:34 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , Vidcapper
writes
On 29/12/2016 16:43, John Hall wrote:


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

But it's cold *now*...



Here in my p[art of Surrey, it's not been what I'd call properly cold.
Yes, quite sharp frosts at night, but (prior to today) the days have
been very pleasant, with lots of sun, light winds and maxima of 5C or
so. Today's been very different, unfortunately, with fog persisting all
day for the first time in a year or two and the temperature only a
couple of degrees above freezing.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

Here in Penzance, the lowest maximum of the month was 9.7C back on 3rd, only 2 days have failed to reach 10C.

It will be (easily) my 2nd warmest December (after 2015) in my 26 year record.

Another lovely day today. The month in pictures http://www.sennen-cove.com/imdec16.htm

I wonder if the lack of Arctic sea ice has played any part in the persistent northerly track of the Atlantic depressions? The pattern has certainly provided some of the best winter surfing ever. (I just watch - until May arrives)

Graham
Penzance

GFS T+324
 

On 30/12/2016 17:00, Graham Easterling wrote:
Here in Penzance, the lowest maximum of the month was 9.7C back on 3rd, only 2 days have failed to reach 10C.
It will be (easily) my 2nd warmest December (after 2015) in my 26 year record.
Another lovely day today. The month in pictures http://www.sennen-cove.com/imdec16.htm

A bright day here with sunny intervals though it was a foggy start but
that gradually cleared through the morning.

My mean temperature for this month so far is 8.3C. That does make it the
2nd warmest December in my 11 year record though a few months have come
close(ish).

The recent plethora of cold nights has dragged the mean temperature down
a little from its dizzy heights earlier in the month. The mean maximum
temperature currently at 11.2C.

Only 16.5 mm of rain - going to be my driest December by quite a margin.

Sunshine levels have picked up markedly during the last 7 days meaning
this month has been saved from being a very dull one but it will still
be cloudier than normal.

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalleyweather.me.uk

GFS T+324
 

On Thursday, 29 December 2016 23:11:16 UTC, Graham wrote:
......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z.
To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.
I agree Norman as far as I concerned totally useless, not sure why they
bother:)


Graham

Too much time to idle away over the Christmas holidays!