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Old March 13th 15, 08:55 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

"We're basically declaring El Niño," NOAA forecaster Michelle L'Heureux said. "It's unfortunate we can't declare a weak El Niño." See:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...SA_WR_20150311

Cheers, Alastair.

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Old March 17th 15, 07:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

On Friday, 13 March 2015 09:55:44 UTC, Alastair wrote:
"We're basically declaring El Niño," NOAA forecaster Michelle L'Heureux said. "It's unfortunate we can't declare a weak El Niño." See:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...SA_WR_20150311

Cheers, Alastair.




Thanks for the warning Alastair we must make preparations

http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt...er-current.gif
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Old March 18th 15, 07:35 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

Graham posted about this on the 7th
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Old March 18th 15, 07:39 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

On Tuesday, March 17, 2015 at 8:50:03 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Friday, 13 March 2015 09:55:44 UTC, Alastair wrote:
"We're basically declaring El Niño," NOAA forecaster Michelle L'Heureux said. "It's unfortunate we can't declare a weak El Niño." See:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...SA_WR_20150311

Cheers, Alastair.




Thanks for the warning Alastair we must make preparations

http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt...er-current.gif


Idiot.
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Old March 18th 15, 07:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

On Friday, March 13, 2015 at 9:55:44 AM UTC, Alastair wrote:
"We're basically declaring El Niño," NOAA forecaster Michelle L'Heureux said. "It's unfortunate we can't declare a weak El Niño." See:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...SA_WR_20150311

Cheers, Alastair.


The (weak) El Nino will probably strengthen later in the year, but nothing is certain around that. It also needs to be noted that for an 'official' declaration of an El Nino (the link isn't that, Alastair), there has to be 5 overlapping sets of 3-month data with El Nino conditions in Nino 3.4 (Slide 23 below) and currently, there are only 4; hence 'El Nino advisory'. The models vary in their predictions, but the mean values would indicate a strengthening (Slide 25 below), but there is quite a split between the model output, ATM.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf


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Old March 18th 15, 07:48 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default El Nino Officially Declared for 2015

Idiot.


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