Conflicting forecasts
 

Freddie wrote:

On 27 Feb 2014 11:27:07 GMT, "Norman" wrote:
Not sure what the users of the forecasts will make of those
conflicting
predictions!

Yes it's a tad confusing! I'm assuming that the text forecast is based on the
midnight model run, as the 0600 run has the precipitation much further south
(only just reaching south Shropshire). The location-based forecast will be
based on the latest model run. I don't know what the update cycle of the
text-based forecast is - probably 12hr / twice a day.

The update is, indeed, 12-hourly. That doesn't help Joe Public who are using
the forecasts. I often wonder if the Met Office could find themselves liable
for losses suffered by anyone who relied on a forecast that the Met Office knew
to no longer represent the current thinking but which they had left on their
website as the "current" forecast. It certainly doesn't do their image much
good.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Conflicting forecasts
 

On Thursday, February 27, 2014 1:11:27 PM UTC, Norman wrote:
Freddie wrote:



On 27 Feb 2014 11:27:07 GMT, "Norman" wrote:
Not sure what the users of the forecasts will make of those
conflicting predictions!

Yes it's a tad confusing! I'm assuming that the text forecast is based on the midnight model run, as the 0600 run has the precipitation much further south
(only just reaching south Shropshire). The location-based forecast will be
based on the latest model run. I don't know what the update cycle of the
text-based forecast is - probably 12hr / twice a day.

The update is, indeed, 12-hourly. That doesn't help Joe Public who are using
the forecasts. I often wonder if the Met Office could find themselves liable
for losses suffered by anyone who relied on a forecast that the Met Office knew
to no longer represent the current thinking but which they had left on their
website as the "current" forecast. It certainly doesn't do their image much
good.

Norman Lynagh

Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Drifting rather from the inconsistencies in local forecasts to the wonders of the MetO search engine. There are many examples, but on the local 5 day forecast page keying 'Scilly' gives no match, but the option of 'Scilly Islands United Kingdom'. Click this suggested match and you get 'No selected Match' It goes on to suggest 'Hugh Town' (the capitol of Scilly) which is apparently 1 mile from Scilly or St Mary's, which apparently is further.

Then you get a choice of St Mary's Airport or St Mary's heliport. Although the airport & heliport are actually the same place (except the helicopters don't fly anymore) they are miraculously different distances from Scilly and sometimes even have differing forecasts. So you get to choose the forecast you prefer! I assume this is down to 2 different grid references being given for the same place. (It's very common error - they are still using the Porthminster Beach grid reference for Porthmeor & vica versa as they have been for a year now - they have very different aspects.) If only they'd take a little bit of care, perhaps even use a human occasionally.

Severe gale for Scilly tomorrow morning now seems almost certain, all the main models seem to be predicting mean speed of 50mph. May well clip the west of Cornwall.

Graham
Penzance