Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters.

This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm

The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south.

So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:-
March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there.

Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm).
1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August
2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month.

So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months.

Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

On Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:01 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters.



This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm



The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south.



So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:-

March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there.



Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm).

1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August

2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month.



So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months.



Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL.



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

I'll put my money on one of those being right.

Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

On Friday, 31 January 2014 20:22:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:01 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters.







This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm







The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south.







So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:-



March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there.







Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm).



1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August



2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month.







So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months.







Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL.







Keith (Southend)



http://www.southendweather.net



"Weather Home & Abroad"



twitter: @LawnscienceEssx



I'll put my money on one of those being right.

Of course it's all a bit vague, but I am expecting some good fine days this summer, just hope we don't go from one extreme to another and I'm dealing with scorch on lawns again :-(

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

On Sunday, February 2, 2014 11:43:28 AM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Friday, 31 January 2014 20:22:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:01 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:



I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters.















This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm















The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south.















So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:-







March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there.















Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm).







1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August







2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month.















So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months.















Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL.















Keith (Southend)







http://www.southendweather.net







"Weather Home & Abroad"







twitter: @LawnscienceEssx







I'll put my money on one of those being right.



Of course it's all a bit vague, but I am expecting some good fine days this summer, just hope we don't go from one extreme to another and I'm dealing with scorch on lawns again :-(



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

Moss with me Keith. I did follow your advice not to cut the tress quite so short though.

Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

On Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:01 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters. This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south. So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:- March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there. Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm). 1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August 2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month. So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months. Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL. Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

1/1 so far, Keith

Winter anomalies and spring/summer probabilities...
 

On 30/03/2014 12:47, Scott W wrote:
On Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:01 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
I have data for my area back to 1960 and my own since 1978 and was looking at some of the stats with regards to the wet January and previous wet winters. This January, has'nt quite beaten my 1988 record of 147.6mm, (currently as I write 140.4mm) although there is still time, but to look at the spring and summer of 1988 wouldn't really work as both the previous December and following February I recorded below average rainfall, so the sum of the three winter months only amounted to 188.0mm The nearest winter period, assuming a wet February, would be 1989/90, currently my highest winter total with 239.7mm for the 3 month period, what is interesting is that I currently stand at 234.4mm and we havn't got to February yet, so unless there is a major change in pattern, this is surely going to be a record breaking winter for rainfall in the south. So the nearest comparably winter period I have is 1989/90 and is interesting reading what followed in 1990, not to say that this will have any
bearing on what actually happens, but here it is:- March 1990 was my 4th mildest on record (back to 1960), yet surprisingly I only recorded 3.8mm of rain for the whole month. May 1990 1.9mm and July 1990 8.6mm totals. August my average maximum temperature was 25.0°C, my 2nd warmest August after 25.2°C in 1997, which incidentally followed my mildest March in my records, so some possibly correlation there. Two other, not quite as wet winters worth noting are, 1994/95 (225.6mm) and 2009/10 (229.6mm). 1995 had a dry April and August, also a warm July/August 2010 also had a dry April and a wet August and July was a warm month. So without being specific I would put my money on a Mild and dry March, a dry April and possibly one or two of the following months May/June/July/August also being dry. July and/or August being warmer than average, will be interesting to see what pans out over the coming months. Now let's contact the Express "BBQ summer" this year LOL. Keith (Southend) http://www.so
uthendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

1/1 so far, Keith


Thanks Scott, must admit I do feel quite confident on these general
pattern thoughts and if gfs is anything to go by, the first half of
April looks dry and warm.

A hot summer also, so the 'Express' writers will be giving themselves a
bonus this year, well they've got ot get it right sometimes, law of
averages LOL.

From a lawn perspective, I am just hoping we do get rain of sorts,
quite happy if it's thundery as we haven't had one of those summers for
quite some time :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx