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Old August 26th 13, 12:53 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?


The old Irish bloke down the pub says that he has never had a summer
like this one this one. As the weather is too good, and we are going to
pay for it with a bad winter?



--
http://trimley.com/weather/

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Old August 26th 13, 01:00 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

On Monday, August 26, 2013 1:53:04 PM UTC+1, zaax wrote:
The old Irish bloke down the pub says that he has never had a summer

like this one this one. As the weather is too good, and we are going to

pay for it with a bad winter?


http://trimley.com/weather/


The "Farmer's Almanac" thinks the USA will have one; but that forecast would be of equivalent usefulness of many coldies praying for one - which I'm sure they are. (sigh).

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-...y-cold-winter/
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Old August 26th 13, 05:44 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

In article ,
zaax writes:

The old Irish bloke down the pub says that he has never had a
summer like this one this one.


Then either he has a rotten memory or he's not really that old.

As the weather is too good, and we are going to pay for it with a
bad winter?

No. Or rather, we may have a bad winter but if we do it won't be because
we had a good summer.
--
John Hall
"Sir, I have found you an argument;
but I am not obliged to find you an understanding."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)
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Old August 26th 13, 07:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

Quite the opposite - for a cold winter you need a poor summer. I would've thought this winter will be mild
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Old August 26th 13, 10:33 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

On 26/08/13 20:02, Scott W wrote:
Quite the opposite - for a cold winter you need a poor summer. I would've thought this winter will be mild


I would be surprised if there was any significant correlation between
the quality of the summer and the following winter.

1995/6 was a cold winter which followed a very good summer, for example.

A quick check of the correlation between JJA temperature and the
following DJF temperature using the HadCET data back to 1950 reveals a
correlation coefficient of 0,017.


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Old August 26th 13, 10:40 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

On 26/08/13 13:53, zaax wrote:

The old Irish bloke down the pub says that he has never had a summer
like this one this one. As the weather is too good, and we are going to
pay for it with a bad winter?




Not necessarily. The weather is not a conscious entity, and thus can't
"make us pay for a good summer". It just responds to whatever forcings
happen to be in place at the time.

The Irish bloke's statement is a good example of the gamblers fallacy:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/gamblers+fallacy
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Old August 27th 13, 02:30 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

On 26/08/2013 18:44, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
zaax writes:

The old Irish bloke down the pub says that he has never had a
summer like this one this one.


Then either he has a rotten memory or he's not really that old.

As the weather is too good, and we are going to pay for it with a
bad winter?

No. Or rather, we may have a bad winter but if we do it won't be because
we had a good summer.


If you believe the lore about wild berries then we might be, but I
suspect they are just playing catch up for having very few last year.

The wild rowan and honeysuckle are absolutely laden with red berries now
and the rose hips are not far behind.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
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Old August 27th 13, 04:06 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Are we going to pay for this good weather with a bad winter?

Depends what bad winter weather is !

Dec 2013 Jan Feb 2014 UK - so far the long range output from NOAA CFS2 /
NASA GMAO / International and USA National Multi Model Ensembles / Korea Met
Agency, suggest:
Temperatu near normal DJF - hence milder than last winter. Hints at
colder in DEC in some or FEB in others.
Precipitation: near normal some hints at above normal but little consensus
in where any above normal PPN might be perhaps SW UK.

Normal is defined as the model normal from back runs of the climate models,
not the measured climate normal but an approximation - hence comparison with
observed data is not completely fair to the models.

Seasonal forecasts are experimental.

For winter 2012/13 the near normal/colder forecast going back to September
2012 data (included UK output which was a bit cold perhaps) was OK the
result being slightly colder than normal. There was also some indications of
a colder Spring.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...es/2013/winter



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