Stratwarms and cold weather
 

On Monday, 17 December 2012 18:08:06 UTC, Weatherlawyer



How can I be writing to myself if you are reading them?

DO WAKE UP IN THE BACK, THERE!

SORRY SIR (I do read them ,onest)



The fact is I have a Fred Hoyle perspective on modern science.



It doesn't help that I am math blind. But like a colour blind soldier,

I have less chance of getting fooled by camouflage when I am looking

for trouble.

Stratwarms and cold weather
 

"Mike.Trigger" wrote in message
...
A current warming event is occurring across N America and westwards across
the other side of the globe. The changing pattern has led to a move of the
polar vortex (eg at 50hPa) from NE Canada to N Russia about 120 Deg E . The
resulting change over Europe from a W/SW stratospheric flow to a NW flow
may well be implicated in a decline of the Russia area of high pressure.
The reduced or reversed westerly over the USA may be helping with the
forecast block over USA and a colder weather type there.

Could this event also be partially responsible for some of the 1 month
and 3 monthly forecast output jumping from a cold to less cold types in
output issued after about 2 Dec depending on the inclusion of
stratospheric levels in the models ?

As far as cold over UK - there is a hint from KMA for an increased
incidence of easterlies (possibly cyclonic) for a week 13th -20 th Jan -
KMA got the change to the cyclonic SW/W type over the UK in December. CFS2
also the last week UKMO monthly also hint a some temporary ? changes
around this time. Would not bet on this being correct though.


Hi Mike, very interesting. I notice that in the fag end of the DT 12Z ECM
run it has a deepening low moving SW from Novoya Zemyla and the Russian high
collapses, presumably in response. Models are not consistent with detail at
shorter range and that may be due to big changes in the stratosphere.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Stratwarms and cold weather
 

On Monday, December 17, 2012 6:36:09 PM UTC, Mike.Trigger wrote:
A current warming event is occurring across N America and westwards across

the other side of the globe. The changing pattern has led to a move of the

polar vortex (eg at 50hPa) from NE Canada to N Russia about 120 Deg E . The

resulting change over Europe from a W/SW stratospheric flow to a NW flow may

well be implicated in a decline of the Russia area of high pressure. The

reduced or reversed westerly over the USA may be helping with the forecast

block over USA and a colder weather type there.



Could this event also be partially responsible for some of the 1 month and

3 monthly forecast output jumping from a cold to less cold types in output

issued after about 2 Dec depending on the inclusion of stratospheric levels

in the models ?



As far as cold over UK - there is a hint from KMA for an increased incidence

of easterlies (possibly cyclonic) for a week 13th -20 th Jan - KMA got the

change to the cyclonic SW/W type over the UK in December. CFS2 also the last

week UKMO monthly also hint a some temporary ? changes around this time.

Would not bet on this being correct though.

I'm interested. Would you post a link to where you've found the information in your first paragraph.