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Old September 25th 12, 09:39 AM
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Default 00z Model Output 25/09/2012

Good morning. Here's my take on the 00zs for today Tuesday September 25th 2012

All models currently show Low pressure centred over Northern Britain sliping slowly south over the next 24hrs to be near SW England, filling steadily by late tomorrow. It fills further and loses it's identity by late Thursday as a trough of Low pressure swings SE behind it by Friday. Saturday is then showing the UK in a cool run of NW winds with some showers in the North while southern areas enjoy a drier and brighter day.

GFS then shows a mobile pattern throughout the whole of the rest of the run with the basic pattern of Low to the North, troughs passing East followed by a ridge repeated several times over the FI period. All areas would see some rain, heaviest in the North with Westerly winds, strongest in the North, and some decent dry periods longest lasting in the South. temperatures would be close to normal with some cooler intervals behind the cold fronts and in any clear periods overnight.

The GFS Ensembles show changeable weather over the next few weeks. Some rain can be expected for all on occasion. Uppers will be close to the long term mean in the North and somewhat below in the South.

The Jet Stream currently troughed to the South of Britain continues in this way for a few more days before a more direct West to East flow sets up over the UK in three or four days and beyond.

UKMO for midnight on Monday shows Low pressure over the Faroe islands and a strong Westerly flow over Britain. The most likely scenario from the 144hr chart is sunshine and blustery showers in the North while the South would likely be cloudy wit rain at times under a slow moving trailing cold front.

ECM shows a WSW flow at the same time point with troughs embedded in the flow making for unsettled conditions in the north and West though the South and East could hang on to some drier and brighter weather for a fw days before pressure falls with rain and showers in a strong West then cool NW wind. The end of the run sees High pressure build strongly in from the West under a very cool Northerly.

In Summary the best description of the weather pattern from the output is changeable. All areas will see some rain, though thankfully much less than has been experienced by many recently. Winds will blow mostly from a Westerly direction indicating average temperatures though in any NW incursions it would turn rather cool at times. Some decent dry spells are shown too, most likely for Southern and Southeastern areas though perhaps more generally later.

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Old September 25th 12, 05:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 00z Model Output 25/09/2012

Martin Gibbs wrote:
Good morning. Here's my take on the 00zs for today Tuesday September
25th 2012

All models currently show Low pressure centred over Northern Britain
sliping slowly south over the next 24hrs to be near SW England, filling
steadily by late tomorrow. It fills further and loses it's identity by
late Thursday as a trough of Low pressure swings SE behind it by Friday.
Saturday is then showing the UK in a cool run of NW winds with some
showers in the North while southern areas enjoy a drier and brighter
day.

GFS then shows a mobile pattern throughout the whole of the rest of the
run with the basic pattern of Low to the North, troughs passing East
followed by a ridge repeated several times over the FI period. All areas
would see some rain, heaviest in the North with Westerly winds,
strongest in the North, and some decent dry periods longest lasting in
the South. temperatures would be close to normal with some cooler
intervals behind the cold fronts and in any clear periods overnight.

The GFS Ensembles show changeable weather over the next few weeks. Some
rain can be expected for all on occasion. Uppers will be close to the
long term mean in the North and somewhat below in the South.

The Jet Stream currently troughed to the South of Britain continues in
this way for a few more days before a more direct West to East flow sets
up over the UK in three or four days and beyond.

UKMO for midnight on Monday shows Low pressure over the Faroe islands
and a strong Westerly flow over Britain. The most likely scenario from
the 144hr chart is sunshine and blustery showers in the North while the
South would likely be cloudy wit rain at times under a slow moving
trailing cold front.

ECM shows a WSW flow at the same time point with troughs embedded in the
flow making for unsettled conditions in the north and West though the
South and East could hang on to some drier and brighter weather for a fw
days before pressure falls with rain and showers in a strong West then
cool NW wind. The end of the run sees High pressure build strongly in
from the West under a very cool Northerly.

In Summary the best description of the weather pattern from the output
is changeable. All areas will see some rain, though thankfully much less
than has been experienced by many recently. Winds will blow mostly from
a Westerly direction indicating average temperatures though in any NW
incursions it would turn rather cool at times. Some decent dry spells
are shown too, most likely for Southern and Southeastern areas though
perhaps more generally later.




-----------------------
Thank you. Very useful.
Dave, S.Essex


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