"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
I note with interest that last nights FAX T+96 compared with this mornings
FAX T+84 for 12Z Sunday shows the occlusion to be much slower increasing
the snow risk in the SE. Even the GFS 00Z is developing a potentially
disruptive snow situation for Saturday over central and eastern England.
For the SW it could well be rain on low ground (possible ice risk) but even
here the back-tracking of the cold air, with 850s temps only just creeping
above zero, over Cornwall and a very cold boundary layer could mean a spell
of transient snow with a more persistent band at altitude. I fancy we will
see some yellow snow warnings issued today and then I will be throwing *my*
toys out of the pram LOL :-) Longer term, the cold air and block hangs on
in the south as pressure rises again. Due in part I think to slowing down
of zonal wind at 150hPa
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf .
This will encourage faster trough disruptions in the Atlantic helping to
maintain the block. On this basis and the presence of deep cold air over
continental Europe and the location of the block I am going to call for a
cold February which will make a change from recent years. This is well in
line with MetO 16-30 day. That's it, I'm off out now to enjoy the glorious
sunshine, ice and snow!

The Haytor teaboy :-)


Midday 12Z FAX outputs again slow the warm front down a bit. At this rate it
could struggle to reach the far SE. This is good for me though as it
increases the chances of it staying as snow in upland Devon. Yellow snow
warnings out I notice. Orange ones out tomorrow given the intensity of
precip. expected on 12Z UKMO raw and GFS outputs?

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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