Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:
Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * *by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *George Bernard Shaw

The models are struggling with setting in this easterly. By Wednesday,
it will probably look completely different, but which course it will
take, beats me! One thing going for it is the last week of January and
the first week of February are when the average tempertures drawn
through the year bottom out, so it couldn't come at a better time.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on the
Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I reckon that
in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to get above
freezing on those two days.
--

Even with those temperatures for Thursday & Friday, all the talk about this
being another 1987 did make me laugh:)
I can see this being just your average cold spell in an otherwise mild
Winter.
My Mrs was getting worried about all the talk of blizzards as we are off to
Norfolk next weekend, I told her it's all just fantasy weather charts:)
Bring on another North westerly like we had in the middle of December, much
prefer that than this set up anytime.
Hopefully get one later next month or maybe in March.


Graham (North Staffs)

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on the
Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I reckon that
in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to get above
freezing on those two days.
--

Even with those temperatures for Thursday & Friday, all the talk about this
being another 1987 did make me laugh:)
I can see this being just your average cold spell in an otherwise mild
Winter.
My Mrs was getting worried about all the talk of blizzards as we are off to
Norfolk next weekend, I told her it's all just fantasy weather charts:)
Bring on another North westerly like we had in the middle of December, much
prefer that than this set up anytime.
Hopefully get one later next month or maybe in March.


Graham (North Staffs)

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

John Hall wrote:
Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.
--------------------------------
I'm not planning on mentioning snow in my local forecast for S.Essex
though John, as per Countryfile. I may be proved wrong by
Thursday/Friday though if a bit of instability can develop over the
North Sea and bring in some showers.
Dave

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

On Jan 29, 8:34*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:

Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday..
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * *by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *George Bernard Shaw

The models are struggling with setting in this easterly. By Wednesday,
it will probably look completely different, but which course it will
take, beats me! One thing going for it is the last week of January and
the first week of February are when the average tempertures drawn
through the year bottom out, so it couldn't come at a better time.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

No expert on this, but one observation I will make based on previous
examples is that models not infrequently break down cold spells faster
than actually occurs. I distinctly remember in the closing days of
2009 three or four consecutive model runs suggesting the whole thing
would be over by Jan 5th.. instead that's when it got exciting and not
"just another cold spell".

Another one, from this time of the year, was the Feb 1996 spell. A
cold spell had set in circa Jan 20th and the forecasts around Feb 1st
(a Thursday) distinctly suggested mild air spreading across on the
5th, the following Monday, ending the cold spell. In fact what
happened is that while the said front did arrive, it didn't introduce
milder air, instead sliding down into France and producing one of the
few decent snowy spells of the 90s, in fact the only decent one to
occur in winter (rather than spring) that I experienced other than Feb
1991. It then stayed very cold until the Wednesday, then as the SE was
replaced by a NW it got a little milder on Thursday (a day I remember
of very bright sunshine and slowly thawing, though still present,
snow) before it all went pear-shaped on Friday when a deep low
produced lots of rain but no snow. After a mild weekend the rest of
the month remained coldish, however.

Nick

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:
Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.

The models are struggling with setting in this easterly. By Wednesday,
it will probably look completely different, but which course it will
take, beats me!

I think that what they are showing up to and including Friday is now
very consistent, but after that it's still up for debate, though the 12Z
ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement with the operational run for some
warming on Saturday and Sunday. After that, the ensemble sticks with
milder conditions, though the slack flow and still on the low side 850mb
temperature shown on the mean chart suggests that there's no great
certainty.

One thing going for it is the last week of January and
the first week of February are when the average tempertures drawn
through the year bottom out, so it couldn't come at a better time.

Or worse, depending on your point of view. (I thought I'd say it before
one of those who don't like the cold did so. :)
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

On Jan 29, 8:48*pm, Nick wrote:
On Jan 29, 8:34*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:





On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:

Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * *by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *George Bernard Shaw

The models are struggling with setting in this easterly. By Wednesday,
it will probably look completely different, but which course it will
take, beats me! One thing going for it is the last week of January and
the first week of February are when the average tempertures drawn
through the year bottom out, so it couldn't come at a better time.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

No expert on this, but one observation I will make based on previous
examples is that models not infrequently break down cold spells faster
than actually occurs. I distinctly remember in the closing days of
2009 three or four consecutive model runs suggesting the whole thing
would be over by Jan 5th.. instead that's when it got exciting and not
"just another cold spell".

Another one, from this time of the year, was the Feb 1996 spell. A
cold spell had set in circa Jan 20th and the forecasts around Feb 1st
(a Thursday) distinctly suggested mild air spreading across on the
5th, the following Monday, ending the cold spell. In fact what
happened is that while the said front did arrive, it didn't introduce
milder air, instead sliding down into France and producing one of the
few decent snowy spells of the 90s, in fact the only decent one to
occur in winter (rather than spring) that I experienced other than Feb
1991. It then stayed very cold until the Wednesday, then as the SE was
replaced by a NW it got a little milder on Thursday (a day I remember
of very bright sunshine and slowly thawing, though still present,
snow) before it all went pear-shaped on Friday when a deep low
produced lots of rain but no snow. After a mild weekend the rest of
the month remained coldish, however.

Nick



My observations too, Nick. Predicting when the Atlantic will re-
establish itself has ruined several of my 10-day forecasts in the
past.

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

On Jan 29, 8:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 29, 8:48*pm, Nick wrote:









On Jan 29, 8:34*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:

Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.

Modelwatch: 12Z ECMWF and UKMO
 

On 29/01/2012 22:52, Keith (Southend)G wrote:


Saturday and the Atlantics back!

Keith (Southend)

The Atlantic' back on Friday looking at:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack4.gif

Hmmm.

--
Phil
Guildford