ENSO update: ENSO neutral conditions. Trend towards La Nina.
 

Monday update from NOAA.

•ENSO-neutral conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
•Sea surface temperatures continue to decrease across much of the
Pacific Ocean.
•Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions
during June-August 2010.

Most of the models are now going for a La nina developing over the
boreal summer.

Despite the change to ENSO neutral and it now being 7 months since the
peak of the last El Nino, global temperatures for June have stayed
very warm. The satellite figures, which will be out next week, will
almost certainly show June being in the top 3 warmest Junes. I didn't
expect global temperatures to stay this warm for so long after the El
Nino peak. With the predicted change to La Nina, there will be a
cooling soon, I'm sure.