ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary:

• A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is underway.
• Sea surface temperatures are decreasing across much of the Pacific
Ocean and
have recently become slightly below-average in portions of the eastern
half of the
basin.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, a
transition to
ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue
into the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
• Although many models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, there is a
growing
possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010.

ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

On 24/05/10 15:47, Dawlish wrote:
The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

PDO has been positive this year but I suppose it might go negative as La
Nina gets going.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com

ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

On May 24, 5:16*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 24/05/10 15:47, Dawlish wrote:

The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

PDO has been positive this year but I suppose it might go negative as La
Nina gets going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com

ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

On May 24, 5:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 24, 5:16*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:



On 24/05/10 15:47, Dawlish wrote:

The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

PDO has been positive this year but I suppose it might go negative as La
Nina gets going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes I know, but the great PDO powers that be have designated a
negative cycle, even though the cycles do appear to have broken down
since 1998 and the PDO has been largely positive since August of last
year. However, Roy Spencer and some others are convinced this negative
cycle is controlling our planet's weather. I'm very sceptical of that
being the case, myself. Although the El Nino has been declining, the
PDO hasn't shown any recent signs of turning negative, but I agree
that it might and the positive PDO may have been due to El Nino.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

On 24/05/10 17:39, Dawlish wrote:
On May 24, 5:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 24, 5:16 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:



On 24/05/10 15:47, Dawlish wrote:

The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

PDO has been positive this year but I suppose it might go negative as La
Nina gets going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes I know, but the great PDO powers that be have designated a
negative cycle, even though the cycles do appear to have broken down
since 1998 and the PDO has been largely positive since August of last
year. However, Roy Spencer and some others are convinced this negative
cycle is controlling our planet's weather. I'm very sceptical of that
being the case, myself. Although the El Nino has been declining, the
PDO hasn't shown any recent signs of turning negative, but I agree
that it might and the positive PDO may have been due to El Nino.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

I've just plotted that data and included an 11-yr mean. If you were of a
certain disposition to believe in cycles from too short a period of
data, there is quite a strong sign of a fortyfour-year cycle, with
maxima in 1939 and 1983. Hmm, 44 = 4x11. Coincidence? Wish my maths were
better. Have to do a bit of revision.

Any road up, if we were to believe this hokum, we'd have to say that the
PDO passed its minimum in 2005 and should peak again in 2227! ;-)

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com

ENSO update: transition to ENSO neutral conditions under way
 

On May 24, 6:18*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 24/05/10 17:39, Dawlish wrote:





On May 24, 5:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 24, 5:16 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:

On 24/05/10 15:47, Dawlish wrote:

The El Nino has been fairly short-lived and has been moderate. See how
long the heat lasts now. With such an extended solar minimum (longest
for over a century), if solar really is a driver of our present
climate, we should see a rapid decrease in temperatures. The PDO
cycle, being negative, should reinforce that and we ought to see
global temperatures returning towards the 150-year mean........if no
other factor is involved.

PDO has been positive this year but I suppose it might go negative as La
Nina gets going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes I know, but the great PDO powers that be have designated a
negative cycle, even though the cycles do appear to have broken down
since 1998 and the PDO has been largely positive since August of last
year. However, Roy Spencer and some others are convinced this negative
cycle is controlling our planet's weather. I'm very sceptical of that
being the case, myself. Although the El Nino has been declining, the
PDO hasn't shown any recent signs of turning negative, but I agree
that it might and the positive PDO may have been due to El Nino.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

I've just plotted that data and included an 11-yr mean. If you were of a
certain disposition to believe in cycles from too short a period of
data, there is quite a strong sign of a fortyfour-year cycle, with
maxima in 1939 and 1983. Hmm, 44 = 4x11. Coincidence? Wish my maths were
better. Have to do a bit of revision.

Any road up, if we were to believe this hokum, we'd have to say that the
PDO passed its minimum in 2005 and should peak again in 2227! *;-)

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*)) "Hokum" may well be a good description!