High April / Not so good summer
 

Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit with
an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April as
dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

High April / Not so good summer
 

On 11 Apr, 18:24, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit with
an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April as
dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

There are always exceptions to the rule.
2003 for example I believe.

High April / Not so good summer
 

Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit with
an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April as
dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(

Yep, Philip Eden describes the correlation between dry & sunny Aprils and
wet summers, and vice versa.

All last 3 Aprils have generally been dry and sunny, and look how the
summers have turned out. Surely we can't get a 4th miserable summer on the
trot!!

Then again, April 2006 wasn't at all bad and looked how that summer turned
out. There's always hope suppose.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

High April / Not so good summer
 

On 11 Apr, 19:30, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit with
an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April as
dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(

Yep, Philip Eden describes the correlation between dry & sunny Aprils and
wet summers, and vice versa.

All last 3 Aprils have generally been dry and sunny, and look how the
summers have turned out. Surely we can't get a 4th miserable summer on the
trot!!

Then again, April 2006 wasn't at all bad and looked how that summer turned
out. There's always hope suppose.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

I was just reading about the April of 1981 what a month!
Can't remember how the summer was but if the rule work it must have
been a good one!

High April / Not so good summer
 

On 11 Apr, 19:28, Simon S wrote:
On 11 Apr, 18:24, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:

Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit with
an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April as
dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

There are always exceptions to the rule.
2003 for example I believe.

Very interesting.

I note the similarities were shared in the disposition of tornadoes
and earthquakes along with a correction to the North Atlantic chart.

Worth a blog entry I believe.

High April / Not so good summer
 

Nick Gardner wrote:
Looking at some of the runs lately it appears that April will now be
dominated with high pressure, giving dry and bright weather, albeit
with an easterly in the South. I was hoping for a more unsettled April
as dry/sunny Aprils do not bode well for a good summer I thinks :-(

Yep, Philip Eden describes the correlation between dry & sunny Aprils
and wet summers, and vice versa.

All last 3 Aprils have generally been dry and sunny, and look how the
summers have turned out. Surely we can't get a 4th miserable summer on
the trot!!

Shouldn't be that difficult to investigate; download the England+Wales
precipitation records from the Met Office site and look at the
correlation between April and the following summer. I would be surprised
if there was a significant correlation.

According to that timeseries the last three consecutive July's have had
at least 100mm of rainfall. There have never been four consecutive
July's with at least 100mm of rainfall (records go back to 1766)


Then again, April 2006 wasn't at all bad and looked how that summer
turned out. There's always hope suppose.


What was April 1990 and 1995 like?

High April / Not so good summer
 

See previous post, this may help.

I have produced an analysis of Central England
Temperatures (CET) for each month & season since 1971 with its
Standard Deviation from Mean over the same period, see link
http://i393.photobucket.com/albums/p...dDeviation.jpg

Each month & season is colour coded as follows.


= 3 Standard Deviation from Mean = Purple
= 2 Standard Deviation from Mean = Blue
= 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = Green
within 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = White



= 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = Yellow
= 2 Standard Deviation from Mean = Beige
= 3 Standard Deviation from Mean = Red


For more information about Standard Deviation, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

High April / Not so good summer
 

On Apr 12, 1:22*pm, Bonos Ego wrote:
See previous post, this may help.

I have produced an analysis of Central England
Temperatures (CET) for each month & season since 1971 with its
Standard Deviation from Mean over the same period, see linkhttp://i393.photobucket.com/albums/pp17/BonosEgo/CETStdDeviation.jpg

Each month & season is colour coded as follows.

= 3 Standard Deviation from Mean = Purple
= 2 Standard Deviation from Mean = Blue
= 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = Green
within 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = White

= 1 Standard Deviation from Mean = Yellow
= 2 Standard Deviation from Mean = Beige
= 3 Standard Deviation from Mean = Red

For more information about Standard Deviation, seehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

Thanks Bonos. It is a really interesting analysis. A few things stand
out, for me:

1. The change in notable or exceptional events over the last 20 years
compared to the previous 20 (OK, 19). Pre 1990 lots of greys and blues
and a couple of truly exceptional purples.

2. The absence of a 3SD warm event in the last 39 years - it's a
question of "when" of course.

3. 2 greys occurred this last winter (statistical freak, or the
beginning of a change?).

You don't fancy doing a similar thing with one of the global
temperature series, do you? 8))

High April / Not so good summer
 

Easterly in the South ? what about the Northerly's and NNE
winds.....in the North......