In article
,
Nick writes:
On Feb 9, 8:18*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of
the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The snowiest spell *of the winter* - beating even the early Jan spell
which dumped 80s-style snow in large areas of southern England? It
will be the second half of Feb then and (I think) we'll have 10 hours
of daylight - that really is quite something for so late in the
winter!

Nick

Arguably the worst snowstorm on record for SW England occurred in early
March, so it's certainly not impossible. Though the latest model runs
(ECMWF and UKMO 00Z and GFS 06Z) don't look nearly so favourable as
yesterday's did, at least to my inexpert eye.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Feb 10, 11:00*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Nick writes:
On Feb 9, 8:18*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of
the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The snowiest spell *of the winter* - beating even the early Jan spell
which dumped 80s-style snow in large areas of southern England? It
will be the second half of Feb then and (I think) we'll have 10 hours
of daylight - that really is quite something for so late in the
winter!

Nick

Arguably the worst snowstorm on record for SW England occurred in early
March, so it's certainly not impossible. Though the latest model runs
(ECMWF and UKMO 00Z and GFS 06Z) don't look nearly so favourable as
yesterday's did, at least to my inexpert eye.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

I see it as very marginal - but isn't lowland snow in the UK at 6/7
days nearly always thus! "Marginal" does not discount Will's lowland
snow forecast however. Meto ATM don't quite believe him to the extent
that he's giraffed. *)) (but I wouldn't put trust in this
precis - at all of 116 words for 10 days of weather - at even this
distance of 6/7 days).

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 23 Feb 2010:
Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some
southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally
severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are
likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or
snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday
(16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather
cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps
also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an
unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so
still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground.

Updated: 1155 on Tue 9 Feb 2010

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
I see it as very marginal - but isn't lowland snow in the UK at 6/7
days nearly always thus! "Marginal" does not discount Will's lowland
snow forecast however. Meto ATM don't quite believe him to the extent
that he's giraffed. *)) (but I wouldn't put trust in this
precis - at all of 116 words for 10 days of weather - at even this
distance of 6/7 days).

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 23 Feb 2010:
Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some
southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally
severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are
likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or
snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday
(16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather
cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps
also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an
unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so
still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground.

I've noticed that models often seem to overdo the regression (or underdo
the progression), so maybe the low will after all come south to our east
rather than to our west as they are mostly indicating at present.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

James Brown wrote:
In message , Gareth Slee
writes
Will Hand wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan
out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)
Will
--
Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast, this
time maybe?

Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....
Cheers
James
Wales is not on the American Presidential maps. ;-)
It is probably one of the safest places to live for that reason.

In message , PJ writes
James Brown wrote:
In message , Gareth
Slee writes
Will Hand wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to
pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)
Will
--
Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast,
this
time maybe?
Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....
Cheers
James
Wales is not on the American Presidential maps. ;-)
It is probably one of the safest places to live for that reason.

Heh,heh - absolutely a well kept secret. We don't like our roads too
crowded;-))

James

--
James Brown

thats yesterdays you numpty

todays one is much more in line with will

Initially on Monday (15th) outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow in the
north look likely to spread southwards, reaching all but the far south
by the end of the day. Thereafter it currently looks likely that
conditions across the United Kingdom will be cold and unsettled with
further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, some of which are likely to
be heavy. As usual the hillier areas are most likely to experience the
largest amounts of snow, although there is also a fair chance that many
lower lying areas will have some fresh accumulations at times. During
the second week there is a chance that the main snow risk area will move
towards the northern parts of the country. It will be windy at times,
especially in the north.

Updated: 1256 on Wed 10 Feb 2010


Dawlish wrote:


I see it as very marginal - but isn't lowland snow in the UK at 6/7
days nearly always thus! "Marginal" does not discount Will's lowland
snow forecast however. Meto ATM don't quite believe him to the extent
that he's giraffed. *)) (but I wouldn't put trust in this
precis - at all of 116 words for 10 days of weather - at even this
distance of 6/7 days).

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Feb 2010 to Tuesday 23 Feb 2010:
Sunday will be cold generally, with wintry showers across some
southeastern areas. Overnight frost will be widespread, and locally
severe. Also during Sunday and Monday more unsettled conditions are
likely to spread down into northern parts of the U.K., with rain or
snow, the snow mainly on hills. In the period Tuesday to Thursday
(16th to 18th) much of the U.K. is likely to be unsettled and rather
cold, with some rain or sleet at times and with hill snow, perhaps
also with some snow on low ground in the north. Beyond this an
unsettled and mostly cold type of weather looks likely to continue, so
still a risk of some sleet or snow, especially on higher ground.

Updated: 1155 on Tue 9 Feb 2010


--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

so do you have an update will



Will Hand wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell
of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high
retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM
air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling
pressure. Three things will aid snow development:
1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and
falling pressure.
2. Decreasing stability forcing convection
3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass
ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out
but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody
will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--

Terry, it certainly turns colder during the week and probably more
convective too in the low complex as the upper trough edges eastwards.
Some places will get heavy falls I'm sure, tomorrow, for example, on the
front as it edges back westwards and again in eastern scotland for a while.
As always, though, the mesoscale detail is going to be tricky.
Anway, let's see, the week has only just started.

Will
--

"TT" wrote in message
...
so do you have an update will



Will Hand wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell
of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high
retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM
air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling
pressure. Three things will aid snow development:
1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and
falling pressure.
2. Decreasing stability forcing convection
3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass
ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out
but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody
will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--