"Chris Smith" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell
of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high
retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM
air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling
pressure. Three things will aid snow development:
1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and
falling pressure.
2. Decreasing stability forcing convection
3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass
ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out
but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody
will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--


Have you been at the Gin cupboard again?


I drink whisky :-)

Wow - some forecast. I have things to do next week that will be impacted
by such a scenario - so once again, I hope you are wrong.


It has been known to happen :-)

Can't you forecast something nice for us?


LOL

Well I did say a few days ago that this would be the final cold spell of the
winter, trouble is ... I didn't say how long it would last :-))

Spring will come when the main polar jet eventually backs SW'ly in the
western Atlantic and heads towards Iceland. For that to happen a major
trough needs to eastablish over Canada just east of the Rockies, for that to
happen there needs to be some changes in the Pacific, for that to happen the
Russian high needs to migrate east and that I think will be governed by
stratospheric changes which in turn will be triggered by increasing
insolation as the equinox gets closer. So I think come March Chris I may be
forecasting some warm and sunny weather at *some stage*. But warm weather
fans can write February off now :-) OTOH once winter ends there will be at
least 8 months until the next winter starts!

Will
--

You think Will is sticking his neck out? Look what Bill Farkin posted
on Met Monkey on Sunday. http://www.met-monkey.co.uk/weather....hp?f=3&t=11316

I apologise for the .......it's just his style.

Here's what he posted. by Bill Farkin on 07 Feb 2010 21:20

Sir..........Good evening......All.... :-) .....I trust you...are
in...fine...fettle.........
I bear news....of....a prolonged....cold spell....approaching...whilst
many of...you will
have been..in debate..about....the colder...weather...........in the
coming week......let me
indulge....you with....a look slightly further out...into
the...horizon............

So...without further ado...on..to the detail...............
This...week...sees...pressure........relativley on..an
even..keel...neither high pressure...or low pressure..over
us.........but...a gentle......drift..if I may...from a generally
east..or north..easterly..direction.........so........cloud y days..for
many........frost..free..for most...unless.you have...any
prolonged...sunny and clear...weather......temps...cold
nevertheless...with daytime...maxes.....2 to
5oC......generally.......... a real mix...of
rain..sleet...drizzle ..graupel...and
snowpellets...possible.......with a general ...tendancy..for
things...to become a little more of sleet and...snow.....as we head
towards..the later..part of the week......some......rain..sleet and
snow...for many later on..thursday...as a system..works..
south........and then...turning colder...........as we go through the
next weekend.....

Now..folks....in my ..................humble..opinion.....we have yet
to....see the worst...of this...
winter........ (yikes) (cool) .....I have been burning
the..........midnight...oil...and...it....all things considered....its
looking like.........some REAL.....winter..weather is....on...the
way.....starting in around....8 to 10 days time...at this..stage....my
feelings...are...that ..the SW....SE...South.....and a
southern....wales...could possible see...a deluge...of snow.....with
up to...a foot..possible...in some..places.............I am almost..of
a mind...to issue a very early severe weather warning.....for
it.....But we need to give...it a day.........or two....to
determine...as near..as dammit...the arrival date.......... THis could
well..coincide...with a number of...active..trouughs...sweeping
south...bringing some reasonably heavy snow.........to..the
NE..E...and Scotland....and N Ireland...too...
There...is a risk.....of the snow....in the SW..and South becoming
increasingly prolonged and heavy....with some
astronomical....totals.....being recorded.....Not quite Washington DC
2010, but nonetheless.......heavier falls than..we have seen
so...far..this winter....
Now beyond....the week beginning 15th...Feb....i.e.22nd...I see
Winter...extending possibly a further month....with snow on and
off.....for a good 28-30 days !!! So a very late.....winter...to
come.....indeed.....with only a hint of milder..weather returning...in
the run..up to easter..............So....to summarise......dont be
caught...on the hop...by the charts...not showing the snowy
armageddon...to come.....As it is just...out of range........of the
reliabe..time span....for the super...computers...........Farkin..has
a sharp..eye....and...is...pinning his..good name....on this
one........... Suffice to say by the time the coming cold spell
comes..to an end....we will be sick to the back..teeth..of cold
weather..........and snow.................Good health.......NUFF
SAID....

"Bonos Ego" wrote in message
...
You think Will is sticking his neck out? Look what Bill Farkin posted
on Met Monkey on Sunday.
http://www.met-monkey.co.uk/weather....hp?f=3&t=11316

I apologise for the .......it's just his style.

Here's what he posted. by Bill Farkin on 07 Feb 2010 21:20


near-armageddon snipped

OMG :-)
Makes my neck look more like a Meerkat's rather than a Giraffe.
Where's that whisky bottle ....... quick!

Will
--

On Feb 9, 8:18*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of
the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high
retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM air
near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling pressure.
Three things will aid snow development:
1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and falling
pressure.
2. Decreasing stability forcing convection
3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass ascent
of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--

I do like a nice arctic maritime air mass
It will be great fun seeing those little polar lows spinning down from
the north on the western flank of their big daddy, or should I say
mummy?
A good time to study the sat pics and see the signatures.

Lowland coastal SW areas? Are you referring to my patch Will? :-)
Might have to get rid of Dartmoor for that to happen.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

On Feb 9, 8:18*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of
the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The snowiest spell *of the winter* - beating even the early Jan spell
which dumped 80s-style snow in large areas of southern England? It
will be the second half of Feb then and (I think) we'll have 10 hours
of daylight - that really is quite something for so late in the
winter!

Nick

On Feb 9, 10:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Bonos Ego" wrote in message

...

You think Will is sticking his neck out? *Look what Bill Farkin posted
on Met Monkey on Sunday.
http://www.met-monkey.co.uk/weather....hp?f=3&t=11316

I apologise for the .......it's just his style.

Here's what he posted. by Bill Farkin on 07 Feb 2010 21:20

near-armageddon snipped

OMG *:-)
Makes my neck look more like a Meerkat's rather than a Giraffe.
Where's that whisky bottle ....... quick!

Will
--

Heh! It's just something an Internet weather forum coldie's said Will
and you could repeat these kind of cold armageddon utterances from any
of the weather forums at pertinent times throughout each winter. D'you
remember the forecast from the Met Monkey site owner about snowy
armageddon at the same time that Joe *******i forecast it (with that
low approaching the SE back in January? Heaviest snow for how long??
Never happened!). It's important to remember the failures of these
people for the next time the failures are forgotten about and they are
back in favour as "great forecasters" again! Only judge the capability
of a forecaster, or a forecasting agency by sucess percentage over
time and by nothing else, is my watchword! *))

That low will provide some interesting weather watching next week, but
as to the detail, I'd rather leave than to people that might know -
yourself included. I'll stick to 10-days plus for the forecast
probabilities! It is quite a stand-out forecast Will(!) but this
morning's 00z gfs certainly doesn't preclude some widespread snow next
week. The 00z ECM isn't as keen, but both of those will change before
Monday.

I think your point about the jet and the return of warmer weather is
very pertinent. There's nothing on those charts that even hints at a
return to a more ususl position.....yet.

In message , Gareth Slee
writes
Will Hand wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--


Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast, this
time maybe?

Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....

Cheers

James
--
James Brown

James Brown wrote:
In message , Gareth
Slee writes
Will Hand wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to
pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will
be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--


Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast,
this
time maybe?

Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....

Cheers

James

It's frustrating isn't it? Just one decent snowfall here on the coast
isn't to much to ask for surely?
--
Gareth Slee

On 10/02/2010 10:11, Gareth Slee wrote:
James wrote:
In message1jdo0bg.1uzi7sm1rizebiN%gax.slee@ntlworld. com, Gareth
writes
Will wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to
pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from
Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will
be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--


Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast,
this
time maybe?

Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....

Cheers

James

It's frustrating isn't it? Just one decent snowfall here on the coast
isn't to much to ask for surely?
--
Gareth Slee

You both live on the Riviera but expect mountain weather? We have had
our massive snowfall for this winter and I now look forward to the
wonders of spring. ;-)

--
Howard Neil
(western end of the Brecon Beacons National Park, at 235 metres asl)

Howard Neil wrote:

On 10/02/2010 10:11, Gareth Slee wrote:
James wrote:
In message1jdo0bg.1uzi7sm1rizebiN%gax.slee@ntlworld. com, Gareth
writes
Will wrote

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to
pan out but
now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive -
from
Monday
onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody
will
be
immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will
--


Still waiting for a decent snowfall here on the South Wales coast,
this
time maybe?

Sorry Gareth, it looks as if Wales tends to get ignored....

Cheers

James

It's frustrating isn't it? Just one decent snowfall here on the
coast
isn't to much to ask for surely?
--
Gareth Slee

You both live on the Riviera but expect mountain weather? We have had
our massive snowfall for this winter and I now look forward to the
wonders of spring. ;-)


Indeed, the summer here can be very pleasant, ah well, one year maybe
we'll get a decent snowfall...
--
Gareth Slee