On a knife-edge?
 

I'm keeping a very close eye on developments with regard to tomorrow's
storm. As I said in another thread, it seems to be on a knife-edge for
this part of the world: the latest TAF from Birmingham Airport mentions
only snow from 6pm onwards, whereas the furthest the East Midlands
forecasters will allow themselves to go is a PROB30 of sleet, and Luton
simply has rain throughout.

In all honesty, this is one of those times when it becomes clear to the
rest of us just how hard forecasting can be. Look at Bewdley today: the
temperature reached 6°C, way above the MetO regional forecast of 2°C, yet
by dusk we had 0.6°C and settling snow, something which last night I'd
really thought unlikely. And Birmingham is only at 99m asl, barely any
higher than I am here, so they obviously don't think substantial altitude
will be needed for snow tomorrow.

So, flooding, gales or blizzards to cause the most problems around here?
Frankly, I have no idea! This one needs watching, though.

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

On a knife-edge?
 

On Sun, 08 Feb 2009 18:57:22 -0600, David Buttery wrote:

snip
the furthest the East Midlands
forecasters will allow themselves to go is a PROB30 of sleet
snip

This is wrong: it's RASN with a PROB30 of SN. I think my point more or
less still stands, but apologies nevertheless.


--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.