Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued 0544,
20 Jan 06.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers the UK with light winds for all. The ridge moves NE'wards and
builds over the Shetlands at T+144, introducing a light easterly flow over
England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are light SE'lies. By T+168 the high
transfers NE'wards to Scandinavia, with a ridge SW'wards over the UK. Winds
remain light for all, southerlies over Scotland and Northern Ireland with
NE'lies elsewhere.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO brings high pressure over the North Sea, resulting in SE'lies and
southerlies for the UK. The high drifts slowly NW'wards at T+144, with
SE'lies and southerlies persisting.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The shows SE'lies over England and Wales with a ridge over the two
countries. Scotland lies under westerlies while Northern Ireland lies under
SSE'lies. A mixture of SE'lies and southerlies persists at T+120 as pressure
builds to the north. The high merges with the Siberian High at T+168 and
starts pulling easterlies over the UK with cold, sub-5C 850 air affecting
eastern areas of the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a large ridge to the east, leading to SSE'lies for
all. The ridge builds and moves NE'wards at T+144, leaving the UK under
SSE'lies.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...190000_120.gif
The UK is sandwiched between a European high and a low to the west and this
leads to southerlies for all. The low to the west deepens and moves
northwards at T+144, resulting in further southerlies for most.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run also shows a southerly flow for the UK, with a ridge over
the North Sea. The ridge builds northwards at T+144, bringing easterlies
across much of England; elsewhere winds are SE'lies or southerlies.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS is similar to most of the runs today, with southerlies again as a
result of a North Sea ridge. The southerlies continue at T+144 as the ridge
develops into a high to the east.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge from the east over the UK with a mixture of
southerlies and SE'lies.

In summary, the runs show southerlies for the middle of the week, with a
ridge to our east. In a similar fashion to the Christmas easterly, it looks
like the ridge will build northwards then NE'wards, eventually settling over
Scandinavia. Meanwhile a low over Scandinavia will move away SE'wards,
opening the gates to another easterly spell.

Yesterday's EPS at T+168 suggested an easterly is likely by then and today's
GFS ensembles show 8 of 11 runs bringing an easterly at some stage. The
operational run was a very cold run, bringing widespread snow and ice days
over much of England. It was one of the coldest ensemble members, but three
others show a similar pattern.

To sum up - an easterly is now likely in 7 to 10 days time, but it's still
up in the air as to how cold it will get and where (or if) any snow will
fall. However, the easterly is unlikely to be as severe as today's
operational GFS shows.