Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0551,
19 Jan 06.

There's unusually good agreement from the GFS, ECM and MetO today. A ridge
will bring settled conditions to much of the UK for the first half of the
week, although parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland remain at risk of rain
pushing in from the Atlantic.

The winds will back SE'ly during the middle of the week as pressure rises to
the north, but it's unlikely to be particularly cold as the deep cold is
forecast to have retreated eastwards by then. Beyond that the outlook is
less certain, with the GFS continuing its trend of bringing colder weather
from the east eventually.

The GFS ensembles show a large amount of scatter, although 6 of 11 show a
snowy spell for London either at the end of this month or the beginning of
February. The ECM ensembles also have a fair amount of scatter and
yesterday's run was representative of the ensemble mean in the most part for
Luxembourg and Stockholm.

There's a definite risk of colder weather heading our way, but as yet it's
too early to say for sure whether it'll arrive.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure covers eastern Europe, with a ridge over England and Wales.
Winds are SSE'lies there, with southerlies and SSW'lies across Northern
Ireland and Scotland respectively. Winds are southerlies and SSW'lies at
T+144 as a weak ridge persists over England, followed by SE'lies at T+168 as
pressure rises to the north.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
As with ECM, England and Wales lie under a weak ridge, with southerlies and
SW'lies for the UK. A ridge covers much of the UK at T+144, bringing light
southerlies for most.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The GFS shows the same setup as ECM and MetO, bringing a mixture of
southerlies and SW'lies across the UK. Again, as with MetO the UK lies under
light southerlies from a ridge at T+144. By T+168 the winds become SE'lies
as a high builds to the north.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows SW'lies across the UK due to complex low pressure to
the NW and west. SW'lies persist at T+144 as a trough approaches from the
west.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...190000_120.gif
England and Wales lie under southerlies from a ridge, with Scotland affected
by westerlies. Northern Ireland lies under southerlies as well, with a large
trough well to the west. The UK lies under a col at T+144 with pressure
rising to the north. By day 7 the trough to the west disrupts, with low
pressure deepening west of Iberia. The high remains to the north, leading to
easterlies across the UK.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run brings westerlies for all, followed by light winds at T+144
as pressure rises over the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows SW'lies across much of the UK, the result of a high to the SE
and lows to the west and NW. SW'lies persist at T+144.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge atop the UK with a mixture of southerlies and
westerlies as a result.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in
:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued
0551, 19 Jan 06.

There's unusually good agreement from the GFS, ECM and MetO today.

Darren

Just what I thought - all have an uncanny resemblance to one another even
as far as the NOGAPS and JMA with the T+144s showing a sort of NW-SE
aligned ridge of the UK, low pressure over Norway and huge great impending
high sat over NE Europe.

I think I might go as far as to use a Bartlett "summat is up"...

Richard