Today's model interpretation (18/01/05)
 

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0551,
18 Jan 06.

The models show winds from the south or SW to start the working week, with
high pressure on the near Continent. Over the next few days there are signs
(MetO, GFS) of an increasing Continental influence, although the ECM's
scenario of a discrete high over the UK isn't well supported. This would
bring temperatures back down to average or slightly below, but at the moment
it doesn't look like anything especially cold will head our way in the next
week or so. Beyond that the GFS shows a few very cold runs in its ensembles,
much as over the last few days.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure is centred over France, leading to westerlies and WSW'lies
over the UK. A ridge builds over the UK at T+144, with lighter winds for all
as a result. By T+168 a large high is centred over the UK, maintaining light
winds. Beyond that yesterday's 12z brings in *very* cold air, with ice days,
but it was a marked cold outlier on the ensembles.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
A mixture of southerlies and SE'lies covers the UK, due to a 1050hPa high
centred over northern Germany. The high declines and sinks southwards at
T+144, bringing southerlies and SW'lies over the UK.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The UK lies under a ridge from the NE, leading to SW'lies for Scotland,
northern England and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are southerlies,
followed by a mixture of southerlies and SE'lies for most at T+144 as the
ridge moves northwards. T+168 sees SE'lies for most with high pressure
persisting to the east.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows SSW'lies across the UK with a high to the east and
lows far away to the WNW and WSW.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...180000_120.gif
High pressure covers Scandinavia, with southerlies and SE'lies across the
UK. There's little change at T+144, although the winds strengthen somewhat
due to a trough to the NW.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows a ridge over southern England, bringing SW'lies
elsewhere.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows westerlies for all, driven on by complex low pressure to the
north.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
In a similar setup to JMA, the Korean run brings a ridge over southern
England with WSW'lies elsewhere.