Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0556,
2 Jan 06.

In summary, the models show a battle looming for the end of the week. High
pressure is lurking to our NE and by the end of the week it'll bring
easterlies across much of the UK with somewhat chilly air entrained.
Meanwhile a low will be moving towards the UK from the Atlantic and where
the two airmasses meet a fair bit of rain is likely (or possibly snow if the
easterly brings in cold enough air in time).

The models differ regarding the location of the battle though with the GFS
keeping it to the west (and thus the UK stays under cold air). The Euros on
the other hand bring the battle closer to home with potentially quite a wet
outlook for western areas. None of the models show a quick breakdown though
with a stalemate likely to develop.

The situation does have the potential to be a snowy one if certain
conditions are met, but it's looking borderline at the moment as a lot
hinges on just how much cold air manages to come in from the east. As ever,
more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A large high lies to the ENE with a ridge across Scotland. Winds are
southerlies for the NW half of Scotland with easterlies elsewhere. SE'lies
and SSE'lies cover the UK at T+144 as a trough closer from the Atlantic,
followed by further southerlies and SE'lies at T+168 as the trough stalls to
the west of Ireland.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
As with ECM a large high lies to the NE, centred near Estonia. A ridge
extends over the northern North Sea to bring southerlies to Scotland and
Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are light ENE'lies. By T+144 a trough
approaches from the west with southerlies for all.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under a ridge, much as with the other two
runs so far. The rest of the UK lies under ENE'lies, followed by easterlies
at T+144. There's little change at T+168, with low pressure stalling and
filling to the west. Scotland and Northern Ireland still lie under a ridge
with easterlies persisting elsewhere.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian is yet another model showing a ridge over Scotland and Northern
Ireland, this time bringing SW'lies there and easterlies elsewhere. A trough
moves in from the west to bring southerlies across the UK at T+144.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...020000_120.gif
DWD shows a weak ridge over England and Wales with a small trough bringing
NE'lies to East Anglia and SE England. Northern Scotland and Northern
Ireland lie under SW'lies and by T+144 SW'lies affect all of the UK, with
low pressure moving eastwards. T+168 sees the low stall to the west with
SW'lies and SSW'lies for the UK.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run agrees with the majority, bringing a ridge over Scotland
and easterlies elsewhere. Low pressure lies to the west at T+144 with
SE'lies and southerlies for the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
SE'lies cover the UK with high pressure to the NE and a low to the SW.
SE'lies and ESE'lies affect the UK at T+144 as the low deepens to the south.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge over the UK, this time from the Azores High.
Winds are SW'lies over Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland with northerlies
for much of England.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued
0556, 2 Jan 06.

In summary, the models show a battle looming for the end of the week. High
pressure is lurking to our NE and by the end of the week it'll bring
easterlies across much of the UK with somewhat chilly air entrained.
Meanwhile a low will be moving towards the UK from the Atlantic and where
the two airmasses meet a fair bit of rain is likely (or possibly snow if
the easterly brings in cold enough air in time).

The models differ regarding the location of the battle though with the GFS
keeping it to the west (and thus the UK stays under cold air). The Euros
on the other hand bring the battle closer to home with potentially quite a
wet outlook for western areas. None of the models show a quick breakdown
though with a stalemate likely to develop.

The situation does have the potential to be a snowy one if certain
conditions are met, but it's looking borderline at the moment as a lot
hinges on just how much cold air manages to come in from the east. As
ever, more runs are needed.


Phew, what a situation. Getting intresting.

Gavin.

Gavin Staples wrote:
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued
0556, 2 Jan 06.

In summary, the models show a battle looming for the end of the
week. High pressure is lurking to our NE and by the end of the week
it'll bring easterlies across much of the UK with somewhat chilly
air entrained. Meanwhile a low will be moving towards the UK from
the Atlantic and where the two airmasses meet a fair bit of rain is
likely (or possibly snow if the easterly brings in cold enough air
in time).

The models differ regarding the location of the battle though with
the GFS keeping it to the west (and thus the UK stays under cold
air). The Euros on the other hand bring the battle closer to home
with potentially quite a wet outlook for western areas. None of the
models show a quick breakdown though with a stalemate likely to
develop.

The situation does have the potential to be a snowy one if certain
conditions are met, but it's looking borderline at the moment as a
lot hinges on just how much cold air manages to come in from the
east. As ever, more runs are needed.


Phew, what a situation. Getting intresting.

Having to keep a VERY close eye on this one, as I'm expecting to go out on a
15 mile walk around the North York Moors on Sunday next. Possible YUK.
--
Rob Overfield
Hull