Global Temperature Cycles Are Small Change

Yes, there might be cycles in the NASA-GISS
"GLB.Ts+dSST.txt" global mean land and sea
surface temperature record, but they are a very
small part of the whole story when compared to
the massive accelerating global warming trend.

Please see:
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Glob...ean%20Temp.jpg

The linear R^2 on the yearly trend line drawn above
is ~70%. Any other trend, cycles of so many years
for example, accounts for only the remaining 30% of
the variance. There are 20.2-year and 57.8-year
cycles in these data, but the sine term commands
just 12% and 17% of the variance in their respective
regression equations:

Global Temperature=
(4.40 + .00493 * Year + .0506 * sin(8.08 + (Year * 2*PI)/20.22))C
(That's only a .1K amplitude for the sine term,
about what the warming trend typically gains in
the same 20-year period. The graph of this
function looks like a curvy step ladder.)

Global Temperature=
(4.35 + .00495 * Year - .103 * sin(32.5 + (Year * 2*PI)/57.8))C
(The fossil fools built their 1970s global
cooling myth on the down side of this cycle.
With only two cycles on the record, I wouldn't
jump to any 57.8-year conclusions here, either.)

In both cases, the linear warming trend, with a huge
~70% of the variance, dominates everything during the
126 years of these data. If you are talking about
cycles here, you are just one very small hop above
grasping at straws. The big picture here is global
warming, not global cycles.


-.-. --.- Roger