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Old November 26th 12, 04:09 PM posted to alt.talk.weather
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Default DISCUSSION: Model Diagnostic Discussion


FXUS10 KWNH 271515
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

VALID JUL 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 31/0000 UTC


....SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM EVALUATION


MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE LARGE SCALE FORECAST.


....TROF NEARING THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA SAT...

BY F84 LATE SAT THE NAM IS IN THE SLOWER PORTION OF THE SOLN
SPREAD WITH THE LEADING HGT FALLS.


....SYSTEM CROSSING WRN-CNTRL CANADA/NRN CONUS FRI-SAT...

THE NAM LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE
MID LVL SHRTWV TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA DURING FRI-SAT. TROF
AMPLITUDE COMPARES WELL TO OTHER GUIDANCE THOUGH. WITH THE SFC
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS... THE NAM IS ALSO TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD BUT TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THAN THE
MID LVL SHRTWV. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER OVER THE PAST DAY.


....SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER CNTRL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS...

DURING THE DAY THU THE NAM IS A LITTLE SHARPER/SEWD AMPLIFIED THAN
MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH A GRTLKS SFC WAVE ASSOC WITH A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF HVY QPF IN THE NAM. ALSO BY LATE THU THE NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH THE MID LVL IMPULSE REACHING
THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC. THEN BY FRI-SAT THE NAM DEVELOPS
LOWER HGTS ALOFT THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLC/NORTHEAST... WITH THE NAM TRACKING TO THE S OF CONSENSUS WITH
A WAVE FCST TO BE E OF NEW ENGLAND FRI.


....ENERGY INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COASTS...

THE NAM SHOWS NO EXTREME TRAITS COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AS THIS
ENERGY GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


....TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE WRN GULF COAST FRI...

THE NAM PULLS THE MID LVL/SFC REFLECTIONS FARTHER NWD THAN MOST
OTHER SOLNS. THE 06Z GFS IS ONE OTHER SOLN THAT BRINGS MID LVL
ENERGY AT LEAST AS FAR NWD AS THE CNTRL TX COAST... SEEMINGLY FROM
A COMBINATION OF ENERGY FROM THE INITIAL TROPICAL WAVE AND
LINGERING GULF COAST ENERGY. CONSULT THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING THIS FEATURE.


....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
....500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

RAUSCH
$$

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